Severe WX March 29-30, 2022 Severe Event

[warneagle]

The more I look at southern, more coastal Dixie Alley, the more I get concerned about big tornadoes there tonight.

Yeah, most of the CAMs have at least some support for the southern part of the line becoming somewhat broken later this evening, which would obviously not be ideal when you've got >400 0-1km SRH.

 

[southmdwatcher]

A high wind warning for such a large area. Pretty concerning that power outages could be an issue, before the really severe storms come through later today.

 

[cincywx]

from the new day1:

SHEAR WILL BE STRONG ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION, AS 90-110 KT OF
700-500-MB LAYER FLOW DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE MID-SOUTH, ALONG WITH A BROAD, 60-85-KT LLJ. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS REASONABLY DEPICT 50-70 KT EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES,
ALONG WITH LARGE, WELL-CURVED HODOGRAPHS FOSTERING 300-600 J/KG
EFFECTIVE SRH (LOCALLY HIGHER). THIS WILL SUPPORT LINE-EMBEDDED
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS AND LEWP/MESOVORTEX FEATURES, AS WELL AS BOWING
SEGMENTS TO LOCALLY MAXIMIZE DESTRUCTIVE-WIND POTENTIAL. ANY
PRECEDING, SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS THAT DO DEVELOP WOULD BE FAST-MOVING
(AROUND 50 KT BASED ON THE BUNKERS ALGORITHM), WITH POTENTIAL FOR
LONG TORNADO TRACKS IF STORM-SCALE OCCLUSIONS ARE NOT VERY RAPID.
DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER FROM LAYERS OF INTENSE GRADIENT FLOW IN
LOW/MIDDLE-LEVELS ALSO MY AUGMENT THE SEVERE-DOWNDRAFT THREAT, WITH
BURSTS OF HURRICANE-FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE.

 

[OHWX97]

School gymnasium flattened by a tornado in Springdale, AR earlier this morning.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

The 12Z HRRR has what appear to be discrete supercells out in AR/LA as early as 18Z (1 PM CDT). The northern one races NNE on the AR side of the river (if that verifies, it will naturally be in a major radar hole) and by an hour later is up near the AR/MS/TN confluence.

*Edit: Yikes to the above, today already off to a rough start.

 

[Richardjacks]

School gymnasium flattened by a tornado in Springdale, AR earlier this morning.

anyone else noticing the lack of quality surface CAPE during these storms?

 

[Tennie]

I'm not a fan of the "generational outbreak" terminology anyway. I get why it's used to convey the rarity of days like 4/27/11, but it also implies that we won't see another day like that until around 2051. That's not how probability works, as we know.

Perhaps the best way to look at would to be to do the same thing that's done with things like floods (e.g. "100-year" or "1,000-year" floods), wherein it's actually the reciprocal of the average chance of the event in question occurring each year (e.g. "1% chance" or "0.1% chance" of a certain-sized flood to occur per year). In this case, a "40-year storm" would have about a 2.5% chance of occurring each year.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

anyone else noticing the lack of quality surface CAPE during these storms?

Yeah true , area further west has even less cape to work with , pretty much shear aiding these storms thus far

 

[WesL]

Good morning everyone,

We are safe here in Springdale, AR. Our home is good but lacking power this morning but from what I've seen there isn't any damage to the home. However, down the street there is damage. My son lives that way and he is reporting he is good as well. Basically, the tornado went between us. 7 injuries were reported and 2 of which are critical. My CC post this morning panned out.

 

[Mike S]

that's what I would call too close for comfort!

 

[MichelleH]

So glad y'all are OK @WesL !!

 

[warneagle]

I have to say, it doesn't make me feel great about this evening that we've already had a potentially significant tornado at the fringes of the marginal risk area.

 

[WesL]

that's what I would call too close for comfort!

Yeah I always hate middle of the night stuff.

We have a new memorial weather station coming online that is at my home at the moment. Here is the data it collected. The siting isn't exactly great so the wind is not really correct (trust me it was gusting higher than 10 mph lol) But some useful data from our WeatherFlow Tempest devices. If you ever decide to get one let us know, I would like to start a network of TW member sites. We have a 10% discount if you use the promo code TALKWEATHER and the site also gets a credit as well.

 

[brianc33710]

Without a doubt I know the alerts coming out on cell phones are newer so to say, I guess I’m referring to earlier days when there was a time or two they did the whole tornado sirens procedure when it was “just” a high end severe thunderstorm with high winds. I recall there even being a debate on when to go there with tstorm winds alone but this was years ago.

I remember this topic after a 100 mph straight line wind event in March 1991 but I'm sure it's happened again since then.

 

[Chris3024]

Good to know ya'll are okay. That would be way to close for comfort to me

 

[Bama Ravens]

One thought that has gone through my head this morning: Could this event today/tonight be comparable to the morning QLCS that we saw on April 27, 2011 across Mississippi and Alabama? I know we probably won't see the same type of tornadoes embedded in today's QLCS as there were on that morning, but it seems to be potentially an event that falls into the same category of high-impact destructive wind event with embedded tornadoes within the QLCS.

 

[DetectiveWX]

WSB's Glenn said last night the line will weaken and will be here overnight, but I'm not convinced given what's happened so far today.

 

[HazardousWx]

Yeah, we sounded the sirens once when NWS placed "suggest sounding sirens" in their warning due to extreme high winds. A certain TV met took us to the woodshed on TV.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Almost forgot to look at a satellite loop this morning!

Looks like fairly clear over most of AL, with some breaks over MS and southeast LA.

Certainly seen much more socked in warm sectors ahead of expected severe weather events...

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 354

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.

www.spc.noaa.gov

SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorm development, including
supercells, is expected through Noon-2 PM CDT

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Almost forgot to look at a satellite loop this morning!

Looks like fairly clear over most of AL, with some breaks over MS and southeast LA.

Certainly seen much more socked in warm sectors ahead of expected severe weather events...

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 354

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.

www.spc.noaa.gov

Fairly sunny here moment. With gusty south winds