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Severe WX March 29-30, 2022 Severe Event

TornadoFan said:
An appreciable severe-weather risk appears increasingly likely
across the Lower Mississippi Valley and Middle Gulf Coast region on
Wednesday/Day 4. This includes the potential for widespread damaging
winds and tornadoes, including the possibility of a regional tornado
outbreak including strong (EF2+) tornadoes.

From the SPC.
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While very damaging winds appear to present a significant threat, I am still very skeptical about the potential for an “outbreak” including EF2+ tornadoes. An isolated discrete cell and QLCS spin-ups may occur, but the overall setup simply does not portend an outbreak. One would need more instability and a broader-based trough to favour an outbreak with EF2+ events. Nevertheless, the wind alone is very disconcerting, but at least the overnight threat should not be very significant at this rate.
 
Casuarina Head said:
While very damaging winds appear to present a significant threat, I am still very skeptical about the potential for an “outbreak” including EF2+ tornadoes. An isolated discrete cell and QLCS spin-ups may occur, but the overall setup simply does not portend an outbreak. One would need more instability and a broader-based trough to favour an outbreak with EF2+ events. Nevertheless, the wind alone is very disconcerting, but at least the overnight threat should not be very significant at this rate.
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Come on Causarina. Don't you know even one tornado, even a weak one, is significant... 4/4/77, 3/3/19-20, Winterset, etc...
 
Casuarina Head said:
It’s the “outbreak” that I question, not the possibility that an isolated significant tornado may occur. This will still be a significant SVR event even without tornadoes.
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I think there many reasons to question Outbreak. I do think there be a few tornadoes but will it be outbreak worthy we will see.


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New wrinkle on some of the latest NAM runs where it actually develops a surge of unstable air into the lower Mississippi Valley behind the initial big line of convection Wednesday afternoon...this area then expands/pushes east into Alabama as the evening wears on...tornado parameters now spike after dark across much of MS/parts of AL into middle TN. Whether this actually occurs and whether there will actually be storms to take advantage of this parameter space are still open questions.
 
Hi
CheeselandSkies said:
New wrinkle on some of the latest NAM runs where it actually develops a surge of unstable air into the lower Mississippi Valley behind the initial big line of convection Wednesday afternoon...this area then expands/pushes east into Alabama as the evening wears on...tornado parameters now spike after dark across much of MS/parts of AL into middle TN. Whether this actually occurs and whether there will actually be storms to take advantage of this parameter space are still open questions.
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also showing stronger lower level jet to work with that evening … trend?
 
CheeselandSkies said:
New wrinkle on some of the latest NAM runs where it actually develops a surge of unstable air into the lower Mississippi Valley behind the initial big line of convection Wednesday afternoon...this area then expands/pushes east into Alabama as the evening wears on...tornado parameters now spike after dark across much of MS/parts of AL into middle TN. Whether this actually occurs and whether there will actually be storms to take advantage of this parameter space are still open questions.
Click to expand...
Yeah the last two NAM runs have been kind of whacky to me, it's a little similar to something like 1/21/17 but obviously not exactly similar. Would be 2 rounds of significant hazards of all modes, 2 weird runs to me though.
 
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CheeselandSkies said:
New wrinkle on some of the latest NAM runs where it actually develops a surge of unstable air into the lower Mississippi Valley behind the initial big line of convection Wednesday afternoon...this area then expands/pushes east into Alabama as the evening wears on...tornado parameters now spike after dark across much of MS/parts of AL into middle TN. Whether this actually occurs and whether there will actually be storms to take advantage of this parameter space are still open questions.
Click to expand...
Who do I see to make the NAM sober up and act right?
 
This threat is looking very similar to last week. While I don't like comparing events, it's hard not to. The area is similar to except it's a little wider. The wind fields are much more impressive with this event but it seems like the Cape is limited to south of I 20. I'm sure all this will change, but I could see the QCLS being quite powerful for a longtime.
 
I was down in the Gulf Shores area of Alabama last week, and a waterspout came ashore at night about six miles from where I was staying. Needless to say, it was a bit nerve-racking. That was the same day New Orleans got hit. Anyway, those of you in the south where the majority of the severe weather is forecast for Wednesday, I do wish you the best and to remain safe.
 
Definitely look like a strong QLCS with damaging winds and QLCS tornadoes is likely to occur during Wednesday, with some hints of a slightly more broken band of storms across LA and MS on some models. Still... given pretty marginal instability, unimpressive lapse rates and a pretty small and fast moving warm sector, I am doubting the potential for robust prefrontal supercells. Maybe something similar to last week, with smaller/weaker supercells that produced a few mostly weak tornadoes. But hopefully it stays that way, like some others have said, with the environment, one rogue cell could turn into something like a Bassfield repeat.
 
MattPetrulli said:
Yeah the last two NAM runs have been kind of whacky to me, it's a little similar to something like 1/21/17 but obviously not exactly similar. Would be 2 rounds of significant hazards of all modes, 2 weird runs to me though.
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NAM still showing this in its latest runs, with 18z being basically a long duration significant event lasting into the overnight hours.
That being said, 12k NAM is the only model that seems to show this at this time, despite its consistency, I wanna brush it off for now unless other models pick it up.
Honestly don't think this should be brushed off as just a QLCS event just yet, am thinking we could see sups in South MS/LA similar to area from last week, considering globals have been showing the line a little more broken towards this area, also would probably be the best area for instability. Even if it ends up being just a QLCS event, the wind profiles are gonna be a doozy so it could still tornado quite a bit all the way up into TN.
Curious though, to hear other's opinions of the 12km NAM's runs and if it's reasonable to brush it off.
 
MattPetrulli said:
NAM still showing this in its latest runs, with 18z being basically a long duration significant event lasting into the overnight hours.
That being said, 12k NAM is the only model that seems to show this at this time, despite its consistency, I wanna brush it off for now unless other models pick it up.
Honestly don't think this should be brushed off as just a QLCS event just yet, am thinking we could see sups in South MS/LA similar to area from last week, considering globals have been showing the line a little more broken towards this area, also would probably be the best area for instability. Even if it ends up being just a QLCS event, the wind profiles are gonna be a doozy so it could still tornado quite a bit all the way up into TN.
Curious though, to hear other's opinions of the 12km NAM's runs and if it's reasonable to brush it off.
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The one thing about that NAM run with the moisture and instability behind the QLCS (If thats what you mean) is that even if that were to come off, wind profiles are much less favourable for tornadoes really at all, not other severe wx though. Also onto your second point, I would definitely agree. Obviously I shouldn't be getting to hung up on individual model output right now, but if something like the 18z NAM 3km came off with a broken line of storms and 400m2/s2 of 0-1km SRH, could possibly be some intense tornadoes. Definitely a significant wind threat at the very least.
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