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Severe WX March 29-30, 2022 Severe Event

JPWX said:
The 00z and 12z Euro precipitation suggests more broken line than solid.
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That's often misleading. The actual precip rate and base reflectivity panels show that it's a solid line with embedded bowing segments and such. Before more of the Euro parameters became publicly available on websites like weather dot us, PivotalWeather, etc., that used to be the best we had to go on, but we now have a clearer picture. I wouldn't rule out embedded supercells in the line, but what is modeled is linear with bowing segments and a fully solid line.
 
Fred Gossage said:
That's often misleading. The actual precip rate and base reflectivity panels show that it's a solid line with embedded bowing segments and such. Before more of the Euro parameters became publicly available on websites like weather dot us, PivotalWeather, etc., that used to be the best we had to go on, but we now have a clearer picture. I wouldn't rule out embedded supercells in the line, but what is modeled is linear with bowing segments and a fully solid line.
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I 25% take that back. The line is broken by 7pm Central Wednesday evening on the Euro, but it definitely is bowing segments. This would definitely increase the tornado risk, but I think the line would already produce multiple embedded tornadoes as is anyway. Here's a shot of projected base reflectivity. Broken, but definitely linear segments versus embedded supercell structures.

1648326979619.png
 
JPWX said:
The 00z and 12z Euro precipitation suggests more broken line than solid
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Hearing a broken line will always make me nervous, knowing that 12/10/21 was a broken line. Not saying that will have something like that. But it’s always a possibility
 
Brice Wood said:
Hearing a broken line will always make me nervous, knowing that 12/10/21 was a broken line. Not saying that will have something like that. But it’s always a possibility
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The main part of the 12/10/21 event was fully discrete, widely spaced, long-tracked supercells. There was eventually a line of storms, but that is not what produced the higher-impact tornadoes of that event.
 
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UK_EF4 said:
The 12z UKMET indicate that this upcoming system is in no way something to ignore: Rich 65-70F Dew Points up into Louisiana in conjunction with 60-70ky LLJ and a somewhat more zonal flow.
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The UK is a overhype model.
 
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The EURO, GFS, and Canadian model line up extreme shear and weak to modest instability depending on which model you view and show a strong convective line on reflectivity products. The EURO is the weakest with instability, but that’s not unusual. Canadian is more in line with the GFS on the instability, but slower with the threat like the EURO.
 
This risk looks threatening for areas highlighted. I think it really loses its punch as it gets into the Carolinas. Dynamics go south and north sorta split


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David in SW Blount said:
Is this most likely an evening/night event for Alabama? I have a function in Huntsville on Wednesday afternoon with a group of high school students and am wondering whether it may get canceled because of the severe weather threat.
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Yes this appears to be late night early morning event for Alabama. By 06z on Gfs it’s moving through Alabama and by 12z it’s passed I’d probably say between maybe 10pm to 3am timing just a good education guess at this point as timing can and probably will change


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Going over some latest 6z guidance this morning, see portion of that enhanced risk gets upgraded to moderate and enhanced will need move north some … seems latest runs trying to be less forcing which gives good chance we see some discrete super cells out ahead main line, also speaking main line really a derecho type qlcs not out question going be large area of damaging wind s all way to west Kentucky with some spinups to go along
 
FFC's AFD seems to suggest this will be a non-event for N/C GA based on current trends.

LONG TERM /Monday Night through Saturday/...

Main focus in forecast period is with upper wave and translated
sfc occluded or cold front progged to quickly push across the
area mainly Wednesday night into Thursday. Guidance had some
timing discrepancies though latest runs look to be in greater
consensus. While deep and low level shear params are quite high,
the main limiting factor to having confidence in any strong to
severe convection is the limited CAPE especially if the majority
of the fropa occurs in the Wednesday night/Thursday morning
timeframe. Any shift in timing may allow for changes with possible
daytime heating induced destabilization so will need to keep an
eye on. Regardless it looks like a quick shot of heavy rainfall
across the area with recent storm total QPF similar to previous
forecast of generally 1-1.5 inches.
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Some of the NAM forecast soundings for Wednesday afternoon evening have 0-1KM SRH >500 m2/s2 and 0-3KM >700. Let's just say it's extremely fortunate that storm mode looks to me more messy/linear once again with this setup; but as with last week there only needs to be a small window of favorable storm mode for something nasty to happen.
 
Yeah, the GFS and NAM are both spitting out some nasty hodographs over Mississippi on Wednesday afternoon. If we get a couple of "storm of the day" type supercells like we did on Easter 2020...yikes.
 
An appreciable severe-weather risk appears increasingly likely
across the Lower Mississippi Valley and Middle Gulf Coast region on
Wednesday/Day 4. This includes the potential for widespread damaging
winds and tornadoes, including the possibility of a regional tornado
outbreak including strong (EF2+) tornadoes.

From the SPC.
 
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