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Severe WX March 23-25th, 2023

TH2002

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From what I have found in the tornado archive on NWS San Diego website, the last tornado that affected around Los Angeles in March was 1983.
An EF0 touched down near the LA Memorial Coliseum on December 12, 2014 and a couple more EF0's occurred between 1983 and then, but the Montebello tornado is probably the most significant to strike the area since the 1983 F2.

Incredible video of the 2014 tornado - there is some foul language, but talk about being in the right (or wrong?) place at the right time!
 

UncleJuJu98

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I'm impressed, the 18z nam indicates north Mississippi being the best zone.

I think this is pretty dangerous event coming up, especially if all the ingredients come together around the same time
 

warneagle

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A tornado formed in Montebello, California, just east of Los Angeles. It is clear they do not see these very often.
I assume the reaction to a tornado on the west coast is similar to the reaction to an earthquake on the east coast
 

ColdFront

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I wish some new code or data would be put into the 3km nam. It needs a update lol. so it wouldn't be so moisture starved on everything haha.
I wish someone a lot more knowledgeable than myself that had an idea about the models’s backend algorithms could answer why GFS is always so “moisture averse” and to an extent 3km NAM
 

UncleJuJu98

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Comparison between the 21z rap and 18z nam. Notice the strength and position of the low pressure and the quality moisture from the closer range RAP compared to the NAM. Screenshot_2023-03-22-20-00-11-34_40deb401b9ffe8e1df2f1cc5ba480b12.jpgScreenshot_2023-03-22-19-59-45-50_40deb401b9ffe8e1df2f1cc5ba480b12.jpgScreenshot_2023-03-22-19-59-28-32_40deb401b9ffe8e1df2f1cc5ba480b12.jpgScreenshot_2023-03-22-19-59-04-91_40deb401b9ffe8e1df2f1cc5ba480b12.jpg
 
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JayF

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I assume the reaction to a tornado on the west coast is similar to the reaction to an earthquake on the east coast
I could concur with that. Something we do not experience much of tends to put us at wonder.
 
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So far it seems both the RAP and the HRRR are further south with the warm front than the NAM, would keep the threat out of NE AR/MO bootheel/NW TN/KY, at least through 0Z Saturday.
 
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I'm impressed, the 18z nam indicates north Mississippi being the best zone.

I think this is pretty dangerous event coming up, especially if all the ingredients come together around the same time
This definitely has a higher ceiling than the recent events that have underperformed. If not an outbreak, I could easily see a violent long-tracker. But the potential for two or more supercells with multiple EF2+ events each appears to be greater than prior to the recent “busts.” As @CheeselandSkies mentioned, the fact that the PDS soundings consistently include solid analogs in both categories is concerning. This has all the main synoptic-scale ingredients in place for a potentially significant event, including the classic broad-based, low-amplitude background. Arguably this has the potential to be that which 1–3 March could have been.
 

Jpgood97

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I’m interested in seeing what models look like this time tomorrow, as they hone in on the 24 hour mark and less. I think there is less limiting factors with this event, unfortunately going to be after dark.


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So far not really seeing anything particularly impressive simulated convection/UH-wise, despite the forecast environment, on anything but the HRW-FV3 (otherwise known as the "supercell printer" - even more so than the HRRR), but it's still early.
 
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