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Severe WX March 23-25th, 2023

andyhb

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Would need to get 205 MPH though.

As Robinson obliquely referred to (probably because he was responsible) fixing the EF5 threshold at 201 rather than the 200 the review indicated was completely political.

It's not the biggest problem by a long chalk but acknowledging and changing it would help show a better, more scientific attitude.
It would need to get to 201 mph. The floral shop is the 195 mph DI and was "partially swept away" per JAN. I'm pretty confident that we'd have a 5 if that was cleanly swept.
 

andyhb

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Technically yes, but the actual practice seems to be to use 5 MPH increments. Hence 200 -> 205.
There have been a couple of EF5s (Rainsville comes to mind) where it was simply labelled ">200 mph".
 
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I’d just like to note that the damage assessment toolkit satellite imagery has been updated to show rolling fork just a few days after the tornado…
 

wolfywise

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This rigidity in defining outbreaks and risk area is a bit silly in my opinion. Meteorology almost never has an objective set definition - a lone supercell producing 2-3 EF3+ tornadoes in my opinion is just as worthy of a moderate risk as 2-3 supercells producing one or two EF2-3 tornadoes, and in my eyes the moderate completely verified.

But I don’t think that having a scientific post analysis is a bad thing! In the case of this event, the environment was clearly favourable and able to produce violent tornadoes. The synoptic scale was supportive of intense discrete supercells, as one formed. I think there wasn’t really any particular reason for one storm as opposed to more, and just having one storm was the way this event coincidentally evolved. If we had 3 of these storms it’s not like we would be asking the question of “why weren’t there 4?”. At least that’s my line of thinking. I’m sure if an event like this were to happen almost exactly the same in some other hypothetical scenario, there would be evolutions with more than one dominant supercell. We are just lucky yesterday had one.
The vast majority of notable and high impact outbreaks are a result of one or two prolific storms. All these weenies expecting 3, 4 or more prolific storms every Moderate like all of them will be 4/27 is kinda silly.
Quick question on that - Bassfield 2020, was the well constructed, anchored cabin that was slabbed rated EF4? I think there’s been some talk that a singular house can’t actually be rated “EF5” that it requires contextual evidence
I think the main reason for Bassfield not being rated EF5 at that cabin was because there was a lack of high end context (no scouring, minor debarking iirc) and because apparently a truck impacted the structure directly (I don’t know how that could be exactly confirmed though). I still reckon if the slabbed homes at Bremen or the damage at Vilonia where surveyed under NWS Jackson, they might have rated it higher - though of course that is speculation as there is no real way of telling. At least the survey will be thorough (hopefully!) unlike some others in the last decade or so…
There was an interview with the home owner (by someone with LMS I think) who went into detail about the construction (anchored to standard, with bolts and concrete nails. Wall studs were toenailed and nailed through the bottom, no bolting) and how the house was likely compromised. He pointed out tire marks in the driveway and how they slid sideways, and that, given the truck was wrapped in several hundred feet of electrical, he thinks the truck was then tossed right down the middle of the house. This info was then used in the survey.
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Better shot of that car. A literal spear coming at you at over 150 mph.
Car lobotomy.
 
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