Severe WX March 23-25th, 2023

[Lake Martin EF4]

SPC has outlined these dates in a discussion. Not sure if they got an outlook out, but eh. Let's go.

 

[JBishopwx]

As mentioned in the other thread, this will likely be extended to the 26th

 

[KevinH]

Lol….

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Lol….

You didn't do you job again Kevin, I hereby revoke your thread making privilege and give it to lake martin ef4.

Jk lol your following your own word, nonetheless a potent weather event looks to be on its way

 

[JBishopwx]

...DISCUSSION...
Airmass modification and a northward flux of low-level moisture will
occur across the southern Plains through mid-week, as upper trough
amplification occurs over the Southwest. On Day 4/Wednesday, while a
15+ percent severe area is not currently warranted, some severe
potential may exist near a surface low across Kansas and a front
extending east-northeastward into Missouri/Illinois.

For Day 5/Thursday, severe weather seems probable across portions of
the southern Plains Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. Current
thinking is that severe potential should be maximized near the
advancing cold front across Oklahoma toward the Ozarks and near the
southward-extending dryline into north/west-central Texas. All
severe hazards are plausible.

Severe-weather potential will likely persist eastward toward the
ArkLaMiss/Lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee into Day/6 Friday.
This scenario will be supported by strong deep-layer/low-level
winds, atop a relatively moist boundary layer ahead of a cold front
and/or lingering convection from Day 5/Thursday night.

Thereafter, guidance variability considerably increases into the
weekend, with uncertainties regarding the details of subsequent
severe potential.

 

[Equus]

Ah yes March, a brief freeze break to kill off all the plants and new growth then back to severe weather

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Friday afternoon time frame is looking pretty good for some bad weather on the euro

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Yikes! This has been the favored trend with newer runs. The severity of this system has ramped up.

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

@Taylor Campbell

You going to ride over to Mississippi if this plays out?

 

[Taylor Campbell]

@Taylor Campbell

You going to ride over to Mississippi if this plays out?

@ashtonlemleywx if it stays looking this way and I get my time off approved, yes.

 

[Lake Martin EF4]

Extended the dates. Can't wait for our eighth straight bust.

/s

 

[Clancy]

CIPS analogs-based probs for 1+ and 5+ SVR reports for the 168-240 hour period.

 

[ColdFront]

6z of the GFS backed off a bit on the southeastern threat for Sunday the 26th. 12z is going now so I want to see if that was just a quirk.

Edit: still showing potential for east Texas on Thursday and Friday. But has all but completely backed off some of that instability and severe parameters for Dixie compared to last night’s runs.

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

Yea 06z and 12z GFS isn't showing the moisture return on Sunday. Keeps it along the coast.

 

[JPWX]

Given the CIPS analog guidance and overall pattern going forward, I would disregard the latest 2 GFS runs showing nothing for the upcoming timeframe.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Goofus gonna Goofus, lol. It has the general pattern for a severe weather setup, trying to pin down details about moisture return and such is pretty much pointless at this range, unfortunately.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Can we please keep discussion of any potential threat after the 24th in the Severe Weather 2023 thread. Thank you. This thread is for the system on the 23rd-24th.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

12z euro looking good for Friday.

 

[JBishopwx]

So where do we need to talk about this event? I mean, two SPC Risk areas for this time period meet the rules for having their own thread. I don't see the need to discuss it at two places (and cause confusion) when a thread is already made for the *possible* event.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

So where do we need to talk about this event? I mean, two SPC Risk areas for this time period meet the rules for having their own thread. I don't see the need to discuss it at two places (and cause confusion) when a thread is already made for the *possible* event.

This thread should be discussion for the two days that the SPC has outlined (23rd/24th). But most of the post so far in this thread mention severe prospects on Sunday the 26th. That threat if it materializes would be a different system and require its own thread. However, there is too much uncertainty to delineate at this time.