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Severe WX March 23-25th, 2023

JBishopwx

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RadarSPC2.jpg


RadarSPC.jpg

...DISCUSSION...
Airmass modification and a northward flux of low-level moisture will
occur across the southern Plains through mid-week, as upper trough
amplification occurs over the Southwest. On Day 4/Wednesday, while a
15+ percent severe area is not currently warranted, some severe
potential may exist near a surface low across Kansas and a front
extending east-northeastward into Missouri/Illinois.

For Day 5/Thursday, severe weather seems probable across portions of
the southern Plains Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. Current
thinking is that severe potential should be maximized near the
advancing cold front across Oklahoma toward the Ozarks and near the
southward-extending dryline into north/west-central Texas. All
severe hazards are plausible.

Severe-weather potential will likely persist eastward toward the
ArkLaMiss/Lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee into Day/6 Friday.
This scenario will be supported by strong deep-layer/low-level
winds, atop a relatively moist boundary layer ahead of a cold front
and/or lingering convection from Day 5/Thursday night.

Thereafter, guidance variability considerably increases into the
weekend, with uncertainties regarding the details of subsequent
severe potential.
 

ColdFront

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6z of the GFS backed off a bit on the southeastern threat for Sunday the 26th. 12z is going now so I want to see if that was just a quirk.

Edit: still showing potential for east Texas on Thursday and Friday. But has all but completely backed off some of that instability and severe parameters for Dixie compared to last night’s runs.
 
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JPWX

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Given the CIPS analog guidance and overall pattern going forward, I would disregard the latest 2 GFS runs showing nothing for the upcoming timeframe.
 

Taylor Campbell

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Can we please keep discussion of any potential threat after the 24th in the Severe Weather 2023 thread. Thank you. This thread is for the system on the 23rd-24th.
 
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JBishopwx

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So where do we need to talk about this event? I mean, two SPC Risk areas for this time period meet the rules for having their own thread. I don't see the need to discuss it at two places (and cause confusion) when a thread is already made for the *possible* event.
 

Taylor Campbell

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So where do we need to talk about this event? I mean, two SPC Risk areas for this time period meet the rules for having their own thread. I don't see the need to discuss it at two places (and cause confusion) when a thread is already made for the *possible* event.

This thread should be discussion for the two days that the SPC has outlined (23rd/24th). But most of the post so far in this thread mention severe prospects on Sunday the 26th. That threat if it materializes would be a different system and require its own thread. However, there is too much uncertainty to delineate at this time.
 
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