CheeselandSkies
Member
GFS is suggesting this will be yet another I-20 and south event. Not sure what it's doing with the moisture between FH084 and 108, when a broad warm sector of >60 dewpoints drastically shrinks even as the surface low intensifies, which you'd think would yield greater poleward moisture flux.
Could be one of those annoying patterns for chasers/severe wx enthusiasts where an early season pattern that would otherwise yield something big gets limited by an ill-timed cold air scouring of the Gulf like we had recently, after it had stayed relatively warm all winter until then.
OTOH, about 100 hours ago the GFS had the surface low for this event tracking through Minnesota with dewpoints barely touching 50 at the triple point, so...
Could be one of those annoying patterns for chasers/severe wx enthusiasts where an early season pattern that would otherwise yield something big gets limited by an ill-timed cold air scouring of the Gulf like we had recently, after it had stayed relatively warm all winter until then.
OTOH, about 100 hours ago the GFS had the surface low for this event tracking through Minnesota with dewpoints barely touching 50 at the triple point, so...