Severe WX March 23-25th, 2023

[South AL Wx]

Just a note that SPC's MCDs now have new graphics:

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Curious if the above average gulf temperatures will play into this event some. Haven't had a event that's been able to really play off the increased gulf temps off the coast.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Guess bham is expecting a upgrade lol

 

[South AL Wx]

Guess bham is expecting a upgrade lol

They mentioned in their AFD this morning:

"Our public severe weather graphic will remain unchanged to remain
somewhat consistent with other national products, but an upgrade
may become necessary tomorrow night."

Also, the Maxwell radar (KMXX) is scheduled to go down for maintenance/upgrades starting tomorrow through next Thursday. I'm sure that means we'll get some severe weather down this way, lol.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

They mentioned in their AFD this morning:

"Our public severe weather graphic will remain unchanged to remain
somewhat consistent with other national products, but an upgrade
may become necessary tomorrow night."

Also, the Maxwell radar (KMXX) is scheduled to go down for maintenance/upgrades starting tomorrow through next Thursday. I'm sure that means we'll get some severe weather down this way, lol.

Never fails. Although the silver lining is we've seen almost all busts with the corresponding maintenance schedule haha.

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

12z HRW FV3 shows a hella strong UH track across North Louisiana on Friday. Model run stops at 00z.

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

12z NAM sfc cape Saturday morning/afternoon

Saturday could end up recycling into something interesting. These morning setups are the ones that have a higher ceiling imo.

 

[Kragg]

Guess bham is expecting a upgrade lol

We’ve been pretty lucky the last few years with few late night/ early morning threats here in AL, but just because we’re due doesn’t mean I have to like it.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

If the NAM is right, SPC's Enhanced/30 hatch is too far south. Greatest threat would be over northeast AR/MO bootheel wherever the warm front sets up. Not sure why it has such a sharp cutoff in EHI in far west TN/SW KY when the 60s dewpoints extend much further east.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

We’ve been pretty lucky the last few years with few late night/ early morning threats here in AL, but just because we’re due doesn’t mean I have to like it.

Yeah the last real overnight outbreak threat I remember was April 28th 2014. (For my area) The last major tornado from a overnight event though with a non outbreak just a singular tornadic storm was January 2021 or it may have been 2022

 

[TH2002]

Both SHV and DGX are mentioning the possibility of strong tornadoes in their respective forecast areas on Friday. And as for which town is in the virtual geographic center of the risk area, it’s none other…

 

[Clancy]

Well that definitely catches my eye. Excerpt from BMX's AFD posted here earlier. A nighttime supercell threat would be a quite unsavory situation.

The low-amplitude nature of the 500 mb trough with broad cyclonic
curvature, and 200-300 mb diffluence overspreading the warm sector,
indicates that discrete supercells or line-embedded supercells
could be the primary storm mode. This has been explicitly
indicated by the ECMWF for several days.

 

[andyhb]

Interesting that the first sniff of the 3K NAM out to 00Z Saturday is rather muted with the EHI as well as the simulated reflectivity/updraft helicity, but that seems to be somewhat common with that model. For some reason it doesn't really mirror the regular NAM to the extent you'd think it would, at least at the end of its range.

I wonder if it maybe has a later deepening of the surface low and hence the low level jet response and consequent enlarging of the hodographs takes place after the end of the run. Because the regular NAM looks extremely dangerous especially across northeastern Arkansas/the MO bootheel at 0Z Saturday. But, the hodographs are large and strongly curved across most of AR/LA.

It's likely several degrees too cold with temperatures in the open warm sector, for starters.

 

[JayF]

A tornado formed in Montebello, California, just east of Los Angeles. It is clear they do not see these very often.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Uh oh...18Z NAM suggests the favorable environment expanding a little more Friday evening, into more of western TN/southwestern KY. Where have we seen this in the not too distant past?...(not calling for a repeat of that-yet-but still, yikes).

 

[andyhb]

Uh oh...18Z NAM suggests the favorable environment expanding a little more Friday evening, into more of western TN/southwestern KY. Where have we seen this in the not too distant past?...(not calling for a repeat of that-yet-but still, yikes).

I mean, I challenge you to find a better sounding match than that. It's almost identical.

 

[UK_EF4]

The RAP is painting a concerning picture even by 18z. I will be interested to see how the 21z extended run evolves - NAM already worrying as others have posted above despite its likely cool bias. Synoptic setup is very favourable.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

I mean, I challenge you to find a better sounding match than that. It's almost identical.

Not good.

 

[JPWX]

A tornado formed in Montebello, California, just east of Los Angeles. It is clear they do not see these very often.

From what I have found in the tornado archive on NWS San Diego website, the last tornado that affected around Los Angeles in March was 1983.

 

[ColdFront]

Uh oh...18Z NAM suggests the favorable environment expanding a little more Friday evening, into more of western TN/southwestern KY. Where have we seen this in the not too distant past?...(not calling for a repeat of that-yet-but still, yikes).

Still remember the lead up to that event.

And then the reaction to the thermals coming in and performing that afternoon