• Welcome to TalkWeather!
    We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion.
    CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER

Severe WX March 23-25th, 2023

ColdFront

Member
Messages
515
Reaction score
1,093
Location
Arctic
Uh oh...18Z NAM suggests the favorable environment expanding a little more Friday evening, into more of western TN/southwestern KY. Where have we seen this in the not too distant past?...(not calling for a repeat of that-yet-but still, yikes).
Still remember the lead up to that event.

And then the reaction to the thermals coming in and performing that afternoon
 

TH2002

Member
Messages
2,553
Reaction score
3,575
Location
California, United States
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
From what I have found in the tornado archive on NWS San Diego website, the last tornado that affected around Los Angeles in March was 1983.
An EF0 touched down near the LA Memorial Coliseum on December 12, 2014 and a couple more EF0's occurred between 1983 and then, but the Montebello tornado is probably the most significant to strike the area since the 1983 F2.

Incredible video of the 2014 tornado - there is some foul language, but talk about being in the right (or wrong?) place at the right time!
 

UncleJuJu98

Member
Messages
2,528
Reaction score
3,217
Location
Birmingham
I'm impressed, the 18z nam indicates north Mississippi being the best zone.

I think this is pretty dangerous event coming up, especially if all the ingredients come together around the same time
 

warneagle

Member
Messages
3,472
Reaction score
2,693
Location
Arlington, VA
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
A tornado formed in Montebello, California, just east of Los Angeles. It is clear they do not see these very often.
I assume the reaction to a tornado on the west coast is similar to the reaction to an earthquake on the east coast
 

ColdFront

Member
Messages
515
Reaction score
1,093
Location
Arctic
I wish some new code or data would be put into the 3km nam. It needs a update lol. so it wouldn't be so moisture starved on everything haha.
I wish someone a lot more knowledgeable than myself that had an idea about the models’s backend algorithms could answer why GFS is always so “moisture averse” and to an extent 3km NAM
 

UncleJuJu98

Member
Messages
2,528
Reaction score
3,217
Location
Birmingham
Comparison between the 21z rap and 18z nam. Notice the strength and position of the low pressure and the quality moisture from the closer range RAP compared to the NAM. Screenshot_2023-03-22-20-00-11-34_40deb401b9ffe8e1df2f1cc5ba480b12.jpgScreenshot_2023-03-22-19-59-45-50_40deb401b9ffe8e1df2f1cc5ba480b12.jpgScreenshot_2023-03-22-19-59-28-32_40deb401b9ffe8e1df2f1cc5ba480b12.jpgScreenshot_2023-03-22-19-59-04-91_40deb401b9ffe8e1df2f1cc5ba480b12.jpg
 
Last edited:

JayF

Technical Administrator
Staff member
Administrator
Moderator
Sustaining Member
Technical Admin
Messages
1,594
Reaction score
846
Location
Hartselle, al
HAM Callsign
KB4JCS
I assume the reaction to a tornado on the west coast is similar to the reaction to an earthquake on the east coast
I could concur with that. Something we do not experience much of tends to put us at wonder.
 
Messages
2,416
Reaction score
3,492
Location
Madison, WI
So far it seems both the RAP and the HRRR are further south with the warm front than the NAM, would keep the threat out of NE AR/MO bootheel/NW TN/KY, at least through 0Z Saturday.
 
Messages
391
Reaction score
376
Location
Northern Europe
I'm impressed, the 18z nam indicates north Mississippi being the best zone.

I think this is pretty dangerous event coming up, especially if all the ingredients come together around the same time
This definitely has a higher ceiling than the recent events that have underperformed. If not an outbreak, I could easily see a violent long-tracker. But the potential for two or more supercells with multiple EF2+ events each appears to be greater than prior to the recent “busts.” As @CheeselandSkies mentioned, the fact that the PDS soundings consistently include solid analogs in both categories is concerning. This has all the main synoptic-scale ingredients in place for a potentially significant event, including the classic broad-based, low-amplitude background. Arguably this has the potential to be that which 1–3 March could have been.
 

Jpgood97

Member
Messages
158
Reaction score
138
Location
Huntsville, AL
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
I’m interested in seeing what models look like this time tomorrow, as they hone in on the 24 hour mark and less. I think there is less limiting factors with this event, unfortunately going to be after dark.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Back
Top