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Hurricane Hurricane Michael

warneagle

warneagle

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Unsurprising given the satellite presentation:

BULLETIN
Hurricane Michael Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
400 PM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018

...MICHAEL STRENGTHENS TO A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.0N 86.4W
ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES
 
Timhsv

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904_7c64fd52255d69cf7b4be26d7725d34f.png
 

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  • 400 PM CAT 3 NAM MLSP at 910mb.png
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E

Evan

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Timhsv said:
Can the 12Z NAM have a clue?? Thats a 910 MB storm...CAT5
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The NAM is not trustworthy for Hurricanes typically. It almost always massively overplays intensity and shows much lower pressure than any other model.

Nonetheless, a run at Cat 4 - - even a moderate to strong Cat 4 seems very possible at this point. We don't know what will happen, but anyone in the panhandle even close to Michael should get out and prepare for the worst case scenario.

There's only so much time left for Michael to weaken and considering he's continuing to strengthen right now I think 120-125kts at landfall should be the base assumption.
 
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Evan

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Jacob said:
Ugh, really looks like it is getting its act together at the moment.
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Unfortunately, yes. I wouldn't rule anything out at this point. A Cat 5 run doesn't seem out of the question anymore.
 
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Evan

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Dvorak up to 6.9 and that was an hour ago. Be interesting to see the next few readings and compare to recon.
 
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Taylor Campbell

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This storm is going bonkers now.
 
Jacob

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MikeP said:
Also wonder when that NE trajectory will begin.....
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I know it probably will turn, but I'd sure be nervous if I was in the Destin to Pensacola region (or owned property there) waiting for that turn.
 
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