Hurricane Hurricane Michael (1 Viewer)

[Blountwolf]

SHIPS isn't impressed with Michael. I hope it's on to something. The Tropical Tidbits guy thinks it may have some dry air entrainment, but admits it's hard to predict.
https://t.co/Vw90Vv1GMC

 

[Blountwolf]

HRRR looking quite mean. Cat4 at landfall? Steady strengthening continues - recon just found 966.

 

[Jacob]

HRRR looking quite mean. Cat4 at landfall? Steady strengthening continues - recon just found 966.

Hopefully as is typically the case, the models underestimate the amount of dry air that gets pulled in close to landfall, and we see a weakening storm coming ashore instead of a strengthening storm.

It's still fighting some dry air at the moment that is keeping it from taking off.

 

[Kory]

High res models often have feedback issues that over strengthen. Just something to keep in mind.

 

[Blountwolf]

GFS seeing the same thing. Here's hoping they are wrong. Definitely some dry air entrainment at the moment. Will it mix out and allow strengthening? That is the big question.

 

[WesL]

Looking at the GOES 16 images and it looks like Michael has picked up some forward speed in the few frames

https://col.st/SvVTr

 

[warneagle]

New advisory: 110 mph, 965 mb, moving N 12 mph

 

[Blountwolf]

Can it mix out the dry air... (hope not - but it's trying.)

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/expe...hecked=latlon-counties-map&colorbar=undefined

 

[WesL]

Can it mix out the dry air... (hope not - but it's trying.)

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/expe...hecked=latlon-counties-map&colorbar=undefined

Look at that eye really open up in the latest frames.

 

[Kory]

That’s not something you wanna see right before landfall.

 

[Blountwolf]

No, it really isn't. This one likely won't RI and then try to EWRC right at the coast and weaken - it could just strengthen right up until landfall. Not good at all.

 

[Blountwolf]

Wow, look at those hot towers on the NE of the core. It likes being wrapped up. A lot.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Dry air issues, and pretty rugged looking right now.

 

[WesL]

Anyone hear of any issues with NOAA42 aka Kermit? Looks like they did 3 passes and went back to Lakeland, FL.

 

[warneagle]

No changes with the new advisory.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Deeper convection building on its east, southeast quadrant. Things are looking better around the eye.

 

[akt1985]

Flash flood watch out now for Southeast Alabama, South Georgia and the Florida Panhandle.

 

[Kory]

Michael is going to town. Some insanely deep convection is blowing up around the center. And unlike Florence, there is no southerly shear to help disrupt the core by entraining dry air...

 

[CAL]

I couldn't agree more. This situation is looking much worse than I had hoped for.

Here's a brief video I tossed together earlier...

 

[akt1985]

Michael is now a major hurricane with winds at 120 MPH and 957 mb per the latest advisory.