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Hurricane Hurricane Michael

SHIPS isn't impressed with Michael. I hope it's on to something. The Tropical Tidbits guy thinks it may have some dry air entrainment, but admits it's hard to predict.
https://t.co/Vw90Vv1GMC
 
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HRRR looking quite mean. Cat4 at landfall? Steady strengthening continues - recon just found 966.

HRRR181009.png
 
Blountwolf said:
HRRR looking quite mean. Cat4 at landfall? Steady strengthening continues - recon just found 966.
Click to expand...

Hopefully as is typically the case, the models underestimate the amount of dry air that gets pulled in close to landfall, and we see a weakening storm coming ashore instead of a strengthening storm.

It's still fighting some dry air at the moment that is keeping it from taking off.
 
GFS seeing the same thing. Here's hoping they are wrong. Definitely some dry air entrainment at the moment. Will it mix out and allow strengthening? That is the big question.

gfs181009.png
 
Looking at the GOES 16 images and it looks like Michael has picked up some forward speed in the few frames

https://col.st/SvVTr
 
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No, it really isn't. This one likely won't RI and then try to EWRC right at the coast and weaken - it could just strengthen right up until landfall. Not good at all.
 
Wow, look at those hot towers on the NE of the core. It likes being wrapped up. A lot.
 
Anyone hear of any issues with NOAA42 aka Kermit? Looks like they did 3 passes and went back to Lakeland, FL.

1539104911094.png
 
Michael is going to town. Some insanely deep convection is blowing up around the center. And unlike Florence, there is no southerly shear to help disrupt the core by entraining dry air...
 
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