Hurricane Hurricane Michael

[Taylor Campbell]

I think now after the 12z GFS operational that every model shows development.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

This is invest 91L now.

 

[StormStalker]

Central Gulf coast gonna have to watch this one.

 

[WesL]

Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
700 PM CDT Sat Oct 06 2018

...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA TONIGHT OR SUNDAY...
...HEAVY RAINS HEADING FOR WESTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 86.6W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

 

[KoD]

Projected to become a hurricane before landfall now. 06z GFS is a bit aggressive with development, shows pressure dropping to 986 in 30 hours, down to 960s in 48-60 hours out. I don't think that's likely but it could happen. There's still a good bit of wind sheer.
All global models appear to bring this to a hurricane regardless, and NHC estimates cat 1 at 75mph prior to landfall.

 

[warneagle]

Get all your Arrested Development jokes ready. Tropical Storm Michael now.

 

[KoD]

Up to 60MPH, NHC forecast putting it near 100mph and GFS still dropping pressure to 960s

 

[WesL]

Still moving that track to the east. Glad to see that for sure.


NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018

...MICHAEL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED OVER WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
...THREAT TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST BECOMING MORE LIKELY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 85.4W
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES

 

[akt1985]

A few of the models bring Michael to major hurricane status before landfall.

 

[rolltide_130]

A few of the models bring Michael to major hurricane status before landfall.

This thing is scaring me big time. It could pull a Harvey in the Gulf except right on the AL/FL doorstep..

 

[WesL]

Good Morning Michael.


https://col.st/omQBk

 

[Taylor Campbell]

An interesting thing to watch for occurs overnight tonight, and that’s to see how much it accelerates, and if it accelerates more northwest. If it’s moving pretty quickly, and going more northwest I’d look for models to adjust back west more in line with the GFS. I want this to come to my backyard so I’m hoping for this tonight.

 

[Evan]

Michael is now a Hurricane.

 

[Jacob]

Looks like the official forecast calls for a Cat 3 at landfall near PCB. This might end up being an Opal part two (Opal was a little further west than the current forecast tho)

 

[WesL]

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 08 2018

...MICHAEL BECOMES A HURRICANE AND CONTINUED STRENGTHENING
EXPECTED...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...
...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND
DANGEROUS WINDS INCREASING FOR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 84.9W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM ENE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES

 

[Evan]

Looks like the official forecast calls for a Cat 3 at landfall near PCB. This might end up being an Opal part two (Opal was a little further west than the current forecast tho)

Agreed although I think Michael has started out as a larger storm than Opal was.

Unfortunately, I think a shift back west for the NHC track is very possible. How much further west will depend on several factors, but I think a number of the models were a bit too far east in recent runs.

I'd be surprised to see Michael end up west of Pensacola, but a hit somewhere around Navarre to Miramar is my current thinking.

 

[WesL]

@Jack Watkins you packing up or do you have your American flag and shotgun ready for a high rise photo op?

 

[KoD]

Michael is currently projected to be a major hurricane by landfall. I'd be concerned if I was a coastline banana stand right about now.

 

[rolltide_130]

Agreed although I think Michael has started out as a larger storm than Opal was.

Unfortunately, I think a shift back west for the NHC track is very possible. How much further west will depend on several factors, but I think a number of the models were a bit too far east in recent runs.

I'd be surprised to see Michael end up west of Pensacola, but a hit somewhere around Navarre to Miramar is my current thinking.

Was on vacation for a week right along 30-A back in July and was initially planning a short fall break trip as well before I had to cancel for other reasons. Looks like the eye could be passing right over where I stayed. Wish I could set up some cameras there.

 

[Blountwolf]

It has fuel to work with. Unless something unexpected happens, this is going to be one very expensive and damaging storm.
Depth 26C Isotherm: