Hurricane Hurricane Michael

[warneagle]

Unsurprising given the satellite presentation:

BULLETIN
Hurricane Michael Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
400 PM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018

...MICHAEL STRENGTHENS TO A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.0N 86.4W
ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES

 

[Timhsv]

 

[Timhsv]

Can the 12Z NAM have a clue?? Thats a 910 MB storm...CAT5

 

[TuckerTerry]

I feel for everyone and pray they either left or are prepared. Side note ... happy it didn't take they more westerly track.

 

[Jacob]

Can the 12Z NAM have a clue?? Thats a 910 MB storm...CAT5

It always overdoes intensity. I think it had it at 898mb not long before landfall during one of yesterday's runs.

 

[Evan]

Can the 12Z NAM have a clue?? Thats a 910 MB storm...CAT5

The NAM is not trustworthy for Hurricanes typically. It almost always massively overplays intensity and shows much lower pressure than any other model.

Nonetheless, a run at Cat 4 - - even a moderate to strong Cat 4 seems very possible at this point. We don't know what will happen, but anyone in the panhandle even close to Michael should get out and prepare for the worst case scenario.

There's only so much time left for Michael to weaken and considering he's continuing to strengthen right now I think 120-125kts at landfall should be the base assumption.

 

[Timhsv]

PER ALABAMA EMA NIXLE:
PREPAIR NOW FOR FUEL SHORTAGES

 

[akt1985]

A family from central Alabama was going to ride out the storm while on vacation at Panama City Beach but decided not to.

https://www.wbrc.com/2018/10/09/jemison-family-may-ride-out-hurricane-panama-city-beach/

 

[Jacob]

Ugh, really looks like it is getting its act together at the moment.

 

[Evan]

Ugh, really looks like it is getting its act together at the moment.

Unfortunately, yes. I wouldn't rule anything out at this point. A Cat 5 run doesn't seem out of the question anymore.

 

[Kory]

124kt flight level wind.

 

[Evan]

Dvorak up to 6.9 and that was an hour ago. Be interesting to see the next few readings and compare to recon.

 

[Kory]

This could potentially be the first recorded Category 4 or higher to make landfall in the Florida Panhandle.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

This storm is going bonkers now.

 

[rolltide_130]

Oh this is bad on IR.. this is bad.. buzzsaw trying to develop.

 

[MikeP]

Wow really starting to ramp up now. Crazy cold tops on IR. Cat 4 might actually happen....

 

[MikeP]

Also wonder when that NE trajectory will begin.....

 

[MikeP]

Presentation is gonna look crazy in the next few hours I bet. Apologies for the roboposts....

 

[Jacob]

Also wonder when that NE trajectory will begin.....

I know it probably will turn, but I'd sure be nervous if I was in the Destin to Pensacola region (or owned property there) waiting for that turn.

 

[warneagle]