Hurricane Hurricane IDALIA: threat to the northeastern Gulf Coast

 
I wouldn't rule out what the GFS is showing with Idalia or the remnants of looping back around and coming back west. The only and last more recent storm to do that was Ivan in 2004.
 
Worried about the communities in the Big Bend. Population density is lower than places like Tampa metro but these small towns are particularly geographically vulnerable and could be hard to reach after the storm passes.
 
Tornadic impacts of Idalia beginning.
 
They've increased the storm surge potential in the Big Bend area. Still significant surge expected for Tampa area
 

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The RDPS, EURO, UK, ICON, and ACC shifted landfall north to near the Econfina River (in the general area circled in red).

E80A0DBD-4D94-4384-92C9-764BDB9D25A9.jpeg
 
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The RDPS, EURO, UK, ICON, and ACC shifted landfall north to near the Econfina River (in the general area circled in red).
Click to expand...

This was a significant northward change for them. We also have the NAM and HRRR that are further west and north with the landfall which seems unusual to see them that way compared to the EURO at this range.

06z EURO ensembles

(Note the Cat 4 circle and its placement, and the clustered Cat 3 circles)

us_cyclone-en_euro_2023082906_5797_481_240.png

And then the

3KM NAM

us_model-en_modusahd_2023082912_23_507_149.png
 
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This looks to be a truly historic event, yikes praying for the Florida people. I have a aunt that lives in Tampa bay.
 
Idalia now Cat 2.
1693342978692.png
 
Lot of deep convection blowing up around the center on the last few satellite/radar frames
 
Tornado Watch likely forthcoming for parts of West-Central Florida.
Mesoscale Discussion 2060
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0644 PM CDT Tue Aug 29 2023

Areas affected...Western Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 292344Z - 300215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A tornado threat is expected to develop across the western
Florida Peninsula this evening. Once the tornado threat begins to
develop, a tornado watch will be needed, likely later this evening.

DISCUSSION...Hurricane Idalia will continue to move
north-northeastward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico this evening.
The outer bands of Hurricane Idalia will begin to impact the western
coast of Florida in a few hours. As these bands move into the
coastal areas later this evening, strong low-level shear will be
maintained as a low-level speed max brushes the coast. The latest
WSR-88D VWP at Tampa Bay has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 500
m2/s2, and RAP forecast soundings increase low-level shear along the
western coast from south to north over the next few hours. This
suggests that discrete cells embedded in the outerbands of Idalia
may develop tornado potential. The threat is forecast to gradually
transition northward to the area southwest of Gainsville, Florida by
late evening.

..Broyles/Hart.. 08/29/2023
Click to expand...

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2060

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.
www.spc.noaa.gov
 
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