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Hurricane Hurricane IDALIA: threat to the northeastern Gulf Coast

JayF

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akt1985

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An update on my grandma in Suwannee County. A lot of trees down in her retirement village but fortunately most of them missed homes and businesses. She might have to get some roof repairs but otherwise made it through the storm okay. Seeing videos of a lot of damage in Perry and Keaton Beach but so far nowhere near the same level of damage Michael brought to the Panhandle. It seems the worst surge damage from what I’m hearing was not in Taylor County but well away from the center in Cedar Key.
 

Clancy

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An update on my grandma in Suwannee County. A lot of trees down in her retirement village but fortunately most of them missed homes and businesses. She might have to get some roof repairs but otherwise made it through the storm okay. Seeing videos of a lot of damage in Perry and Keaton Beach but so far nowhere near the same level of damage Michael brought to the Panhandle. It seems the worst surge damage from what I’m hearing was not in Taylor County but well away from the center in Cedar Key.
Glad to hear she's okay.
 

bjdeming

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People are the main concern, and I hope everyone made it through all right, but speaking of Perry, this happened, too:

The #ForestCapitalMuseum State Park in Perry, in #Floride was hit hard. Many ancient trees were split in half by the powerful winds of #ouragan Idalia.

That's Twitter translation of this:



Wonder if the trees took the hit for those buildings, which appear okay generally.
 

TH2002

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To further up on this: based on data from reconnaissance I think that this is not even close to a 115-knot Category-4, at least at the surface. A sonde in the western part of the core, which has consistently featured the strongest convection, found that 10-m (~33-ft) sustained winds were only 78 knots, while at ~76 m (250 ft) the winds were 114 knots, or ~46% higher. So the surface winds are likely considerably lower than indicated by flight-level winds. Winds in the other quadrants are not likely to be too much higher. Radar indicates a very sloppy presentation, with almost no convection in the eastern semicircle. The fact that the radius of hurricane-force winds remains so small also means that the surge is going to be much lower than forecast. As of now I think that Idalia is closer to a high-end Cat-2 than a low-end Cat-4. The fact that this will be classified as a Cat-4 landfall, in spite of the dearth of evidence, will only lead to complacency in the future. Unfortunately, politicisation of the AGW issue is forcing NOAA’s scientists to be overly lenient in classifying high-end landfalls. (We saw this with Ian last year; very thorough, abundant, land-based observations from the point of landfall did not even support sustained winds of major-hurricane status, much less 130 knots, notwithstanding a very low MSLP in the 940s to low 950s mb.) This is terrible for the reliability of climatological records and for future preparedness. But it’s very convenient for the insurance-providers, whose lobbyists dominate Congress. “Hey, climate change is causing stronger landfalls, so we need to raise rates. If NOAA doesn’t go along, we’ll tell Congress to cut funding or privatise.” Science and the people lose in the end.
Is there actual evidence insurance companies are using the reasoning of "AGW-fueled hurricanes" to raise rates? Or is that just your theory? One way or the other, you should probably specify.

Could Ian have been a category 3 at landfall? It's definitely possible. Although, if someone uses just two storms (Ian and Idalia) in two consecutive years to back their AGW stance, that's because of their own misguidance, not NOAA's.

And why aren't we seeing the same thing happen with tornadoes? We're seeing the literal opposite - there hasn't been an "official" EF5 tornado in the US since 2013, an absolute record streak. AGW proponents in power will usually tell you climate change is going to lead to more powerful tornadoes - but if there's really some sort of higher-up conspiracy to use severe weather push an AGW agenda, then they're not doing a very good job at hijacking and artificially inflating numbers of violent tornadoes, as you claim is going on with hurricanes.
 

warneagle

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Is there actual evidence insurance companies are using the reasoning of "AGW-fueled hurricanes" to raise rates? Or is that just your theory? One way or the other, you should probably specify.

Could Ian have been a category 3 at landfall? It's definitely possible. Although, if someone uses just two storms (Ian and Idalia) in two consecutive years to back their AGW stance, that's because of their own misguidance, not NOAA's.

And why aren't we seeing the same thing happen with tornadoes? We're seeing the literal opposite - there hasn't been an "official" EF5 tornado in the US since 2013, an absolute record streak. AGW proponents in power will usually tell you climate change is going to lead to more powerful tornadoes - but if there's really some sort of higher-up conspiracy to use severe weather push an AGW agenda, then they're not doing a very good job at hijacking and artificially inflating numbers of violent tornadoes, as you claim is going on with hurricanes.
Well, sure, it's possible that the experts who have spent decades of their lives researching hurricanes are making the best forecasts and observations they can based on empirical data, but have you considered that maybe instead the entire meteorological enterprise in the US is engaging in a massive conspiracy and systematically faking their forecasts and observations to benefit the insurance industry for some reason????

Occam's Razor is your friend, people.
 

JPWX

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Well, when mankind has the ability to create all weather Phenomenon instead of God, I'll believe in man made climate change. Otherwise, all weather events are natural occurrences (some more intense than others).
 

akt1985

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Based on additional images I’m seeing damage wise, Idalia might not be as clear cut for retirement than it was looking 24 hours ago. Still early but with so many I named storms being retired, that would not be a bad thing.
 

TH2002

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Everyone: I think the Myrtle Beach area can do without more tornadic waterspouts today
359
WFUS52 KILM 310208
TORILM
NCC019-SCC051-310245-
/O.NEW.KILM.TO.W.0014.230831T0208Z-230831T0245Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1008 PM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023

The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Southwestern Brunswick County in southeastern North Carolina...
Eastern Horry County in northeastern South Carolina...

* Until 1045 PM EDT.

* At 1008 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
tornado was located over Cherry Grove Inlet, moving northwest at 30
mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
North Myrtle Beach, Little River, Carolina Shores, Calabash, and
Brooksville around 1015 PM EDT.
Iredell around 1020 PM EDT.
Longs around 1025 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Sea
Coast Medical Center.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3395 7879 3399 7871 3395 7865 3396 7864
3396 7865 3397 7863 3401 7864 3402 7862
3385 7856 3385 7858 3382 7867
TIME...MOT...LOC 0208Z 154DEG 28KT 3380 7859

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN

$$

TRA
 

warneagle

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Looks like Bermuda might be next in line. Much better than a date with Franklin would have been but still.
 
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Is there actual evidence insurance companies are using the reasoning of "AGW-fueled hurricanes" to raise rates? Or is that just your theory? One way or the other, you should probably specify.
@TH2002 It is my informed theory. The fact that a large swath of the media regularly attribute events such as Idalia to AGW and rely without qualification on incomplete, often-inaccurate, and/or decontextualised historical records. (For example, the reported surge of 5.7’ feet at East Tampa Bay, along with a value of 3.82’ at St. Pete Beach, is being reported as a record, even though the 1921 Tampa Bay hurricane yielded a tide of 10.5’, the highest since the hurricane of 1848 [~15’], which would likely imply a surge of at least 6’.) The first link also implies that AGW is influencing insurers’ decisions to calculate rates. So while I have no hard proof that this is the case, there seems to be evidence that it is likely.
Could Ian have been a category 3 at landfall? It's definitely possible.
I think that the data from the StEER survey indicate that this is not only possible, but also likely. If anything Ian may have even been a bit weaker than a low-end Cat-3.
And why aren't we seeing the same thing happen with tornadoes? We're seeing the literal opposite - there hasn't been an "official" EF5 tornado in the US since 2013, an absolute record streak. AGW proponents in power will usually tell you climate change is going to lead to more powerful tornadoes - but if there's really some sort of higher-up conspiracy to use severe weather push an AGW agenda, then they're not doing a very good job at hijacking and artificially inflating numbers of violent tornadoes, as you claim is going on with hurricanes.
I can’t answer this, but I feel that the trend is definitely ongoing in regard to Atlantic hurricanes.
 
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