Hurricane Hurricane IDALIA: threat to the northeastern Gulf Coast

[Clancy]

Pinellas Co. issuing mandatory evac orders for low-lying and vulnerable areas of Tampa. Considering they may see significant surge even without a near-miss from the eye, seems prudent.

 

[TornadoFan]

Starting to get her act together.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[bjdeming]

Don't know anything about this model but the graphic probably ties in with comments earlier in the thread about surge:

 

[Clancy]

 

[Thanksgivingbrown]

Pressure dropping fast. Recon found 980mb with first pass

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[Casuarina Head]

And if they don't and something does happen, you will have the media, state/national government and every single resident of Tampa attacking the city officials. Hell if you do, hell if you don't. Just how people are now days.

Re: the surge: the barrier-islands and shorelines of Greater Tampa Bay are currently being evacuated. The official forecast calls for a surge of 4–7’ between Anclote and Longboat Keys. Unless Idalia were to intensify significantly and deviate eastward in the short term, I think that these values are unlikely to verify. The fact that Idalia is still contending with mid-level dry air and northerly shear suggests that rapid intensification may commence too late for a large surge to develop near Tampa Bay. So I think that these evacuations will prove to be a dangerous waste of effort that will only lead to complacency once Tampa Bay records barely any surge. Like metropolitan South Florida (Miami–Fort Lauderdale–West Palm Beach), Tampa Bay, often at the last moment, has almost miraculously dodged bullet after bullet, in its case from Charley to Irma and Ian. No hurricane has impacted the region since Gladys (1968), though Elena (1985) came somewhat close. The last landfall of hurricane-status occurred in 1946, of major-status in 1921. I think that “crying wolf” too often will only prove deadly in the end.

 

[TornadoFan]

Pressure is now down to 983Mb according to the 7 PM update.

 

[Casuarina Head]

^ Remarkably, the Big Bend may see an unprecedentedly-intense storm before Southeast Florida does...during El Niño, only five years after Michael.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

^ Remarkably, the Big Bend may see an unprecedentedly-intense storm before Southeast Florida does...during El Niño, only five years after Michael.

@Casuarina Head, can you please share the link to that site?

 

[Casuarina Head]

@Casuarina Head, can you please share the link to that site?

https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/

 

[Timhsv]

I believe we have a Hurricane. She's a blowing up........

 

[JBishopwx]

 

[TornadoFan]

GFS is drunk

 

[akt1985]

Still no hurricane yet. Forecast landfall now is Taylor County.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Is there anyone on the forum that will be chasing this storm? I’m leaving after work tomorrow.

 

[TornadoFan]

Got a tiny eye now.

 

[akt1985]

Idalia is officially a hurricane

 

[Clancy]

Idalia gaining steam.