Hurricane Hurricane IDALIA: threat to the northeastern Gulf Coast

[akt1985]

Winds up to 60 MPH now. NHC still isn’t pulling the trigger on Idalia to be a major at landfall just yet.

 

[Thanksgivingbrown]

I have a feeling recon will find a hurricane when they set out around midnight tonight.

 

[South AL Wx]

Winds up to 60 MPH now. NHC still isn’t pulling the trigger on Idalia to be a major at landfall just yet.

The new discussion says this though:

The new prediction now shows a 95-kt hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico at 48 hours, but it should be stressed that additional strengthening to major hurricane strength is becoming increasingly likely before Idalia reaches the Gulf coast of Florida.

 

[Clancy]

Latest NHC disco for Idalia.

Tropical Storm Idalia Forecast Discussion

Tropical Storm Idalia Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023

Idalia's center has become embedded beneath a large burst of deep
convection, with overshooting cloud-top temperatures as cold as -82
degrees Celsius. NOAA buoy 42056, located just to the east of the
center, has reported maximum 1-minute sustained winds as high as 45
kt within the past hour or two. The anemometer height of the buoy
is 4 meters, so converting the wind to a standard 10-meter height
indicates that Idalia's intensity is now up to at least 50 kt, which
is the initial intensity for this advisory. An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate Idalia in a few
hours.

The center has been moving erratically since earlier today, and may
have even sagged southward, pulled toward the recently developed
deep convection. A northward motion is expected to begin on Monday
and continue through Tuesday as Idalia moves between a mid-level
trough over the central Gulf of Mexico and strengthening ridging
over the Greater Antilles. After 48 hours, a gradual turn toward
the northeast and then east is anticipated due to a deeper trough
that is expected to swing across the Great Lakes. No significant
changes were required for the updated NHC track forecast compared
to the previous prediction. The spread among the track models
remains relatively low, and the official track continues to lie
closest to the ECMWF and HCCA consensus aid.

Idalia is sitting over very warm waters of about 30 degrees
Celsius, and when it moves northward, it will be over the even
deeper warm waters of the Loop Current in 24-36 hours. Although
the trough over the Gulf could impart some shear over the system,
this is likely to be offset by upper-level diffluence. Idalia has
already strengthened more than anticipated, and the environment
looks ripe for additional intensification, possibly rapid. The NHC
intensity forecast has been increased and lies at the upper bound of
the guidance. The new prediction now shows a 95-kt hurricane over
the eastern Gulf of Mexico at 48 hours, but it should be stressed
that additional strengthening to major hurricane strength is
becoming increasingly likely before Idalia reaches the Gulf coast
of Florida. Interests within the storm surge and hurricane watch
areas are urged to prepare for possible significant impacts and
monitor future updates to the forecast.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Idalia is forecast to become a hurricane by the time it reaches
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, and it could be near or at major
hurricane strength when it reaches the Gulf coast of Florida. The
risk continues to increase for a life-threatening storm surge and
hurricane-force winds along portions of the west coast of Florida
and the Florida Panhandle beginning as early as Tuesday. Storm
surge and hurricane watches are in effect for portions of the
west coast of Florida and the coast of the Florida Panhandle, and
residents in these areas should monitor updates to the forecast and
follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Scattered flash and urban flooding is expected across portions of
the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern
Georgia late Tuesday night through Wednesday. Heavy rainfall may
lead to flash flooding across portions of the Carolinas Wednesday
into Thursday.

3. Hurricane-force winds are expected across portions of far
western Cuba late Monday. Heavy rainfall is expected across
portions of the eastern Yucatan and western Cuba and may produce
areas of flash and urban flooding as well as landslides across
western Cuba.

 

[Thanksgivingbrown]

 

[JBishopwx]

 

[JBishopwx]

 

[warneagle]

NHC now forecasting Idalia to become a major hurricane before landfall

https://x.com/nhc_atlantic/status/1696090973372358812?s=46&t=YE-7KOP8N8nBVwHdDFuJlw

 

[JPWX]

Since 1950, The I name has been retired a total of 14 times. Ione (1955), Inez (1966), Iris (2001), Isidore (2002), Isabel (2003), Ivan (2004), Ike (2008), Igor (2010), Irene (2011), Ingrid (2013), Irma (2017), Iota (2020), Ida (2021), and Ian (2022).

Ione (1955): Was a 140mph category 4 that made landfall in the Carolinas as a category 2.
Inez (1966): Was a 165mph category 5 that hit the Dominican Republic at peak intensity. Made landfall in Mexico as a category 2.
Iris (2001): Was a 145mph category 4 that hit the coast of southern Belize at peak intensity.
Isidore (2002): Was a 125mph category 3 that hit the Yucatan at peak intensity. Made landfall on the coast of southeast Louisiana as a tropical storm.
Isabel (2003): Was a 165mph category 5 that hit the coast of North Carolina as a category 2.
Ivan (2004): Was a 165mph category 5 that hit near Gulf Shores, AL as a category 3. Barely missed making landfall in Jamaica as a category 4.
Ike (2008): Was a 145mph category 4 that hit the Bahamas (category 3) then Cuba as a category 4 then the Texas coast as a category 2.
Igor (2010): Was a 155mph category 4 that hit Newfoundland as a category 1.
Irene (2011): Was a 120mph category 3 that hit Puerto Rico as a category 1, the Bahamas as a category 2/3, and the North Carolina Outer Banks as a category 1.
Ingrid (2013): Was a 85mph category 1 that hit the coast of Mexico.
Irma (2017): Was a 180mph category 5 that affected Puerto Rico, Cuba, southern Bahamas, Dominican Republic/Haiti, and then Florida/Southeast U.S.
Iota (2020): Was a 155mph category 4 (with argument it was a category 5) that affected Nicaragua.
Ida (2021): Was a 150mph category 4 that hit Port Fourchon, Louisiana at peak intensity.
Ian (2022): Was a 160mph category 5 that hit Southwest Florida coast just off peak intensity.

I find it very interesting that only one hurricane was just a category 1. With 2 Category 3's, 6 category 4's, and 5 category 5's.

 

[Clancy]

NHC forecast cone shows Idalia as a minimal hurricane all the way to the GA/FL border.

 

[warneagle]

More concerning language from the NHC: https://x.com/wxliz/status/1696154457606680975?s=46&t=YE-7KOP8N8nBVwHdDFuJlw

 

[Casuarina Head]

^ The lack of organisation to me suggests that the flight-level winds and SFMR are attributable to squalls and thus do not reflect actual 55-knot surface-based sustained winds.

 

[warneagle]

Hurricane warnings up for Florida now.

 

[TornadoFan]

Hurricane warnings up for Florida now.

Including Tampa.

 

[JBishopwx]

 

[Clancy]

Watches now up for much of inland Florida. Hurricane Watches all the way into southeastern GA.

 

[Casuarina Head]

Idalia proves one thing: never bet against the Tampa Bay Shield™. Storms will nearly always find a way to miss the Bay.

The fact that the Tampa Bay area is nevertheless issuing soon-to-be-unnecessary evacuations bodes ill for readiness. (Complacency, anyone?)

Currently all indicators are that Idalia is on track to become a rare Category-4+ landfall near the head of Apalachee Bay.

 

[JBishopwx]

Idalia proves one thing: never bet against the Tampa Bay Shield™. Storms will nearly always find a way to miss the Bay.

The fact that the Tampa Bay area is nevertheless issuing soon-to-be-unnecessary evacuations bodes ill for readiness. (Complacency, anyone?)

Currently all indicators are that Idalia is on track to become a rare Category-4+ landfall near the head of Apalachee Bay.

And if they don't and something does happen, you will have the media, state/national government and every single resident of Tampa attacking the city officials. Hell if you do, hell if you don't. Just how people are now days.

 

[akt1985]

Any chance Idalia messes with everybody and hits Ft. Myers instead at the last minute?

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Any chance Idalia messes with everybody and hits Ft. Myers instead at the last minute?

No.