Hurricane Hurricane Barry (Gulf of Mexico)

[warneagle]

Potentially useful information for future reference

 

[Peter]

Potentially useful information for future reference

Are those heights measured above local terrain, or above some standard like MSL or something? Just wondering if a 28 foot levee is really that much higher than a 21 foot one somewhere else.

 

[warneagle]

Are those heights measured above local terrain, or above some standard like MSL or something? Just wondering if a 28 foot levee is really that much higher than a 21 foot one somewhere else.

Above sea level I think.

 

[Kory]

Above sea level I think.

This is correct.

 

[Kory]

Here is a neat levee profile database. You can run analysis on height. Looks like the low point in the Mississippi levee on the East Bank is its junction with the Industrial Canal (which levees failed during Katrina).

https://levees.sec.usace.army.mil/#/levees/system/4405000556/profile

 

[bjdeming]

No one expected the flooding today, til it happened.



That really complicates evacuation and sheltering . . . and this thing isn't even named yet.

 

[Kory]

The consensus TVCN hurricane model is basically the GFS from 12z. Its well east of the official track which may need to shift east.

 

[warneagle]

Hurricane watch is up for southern LA

 

[warneagle]

Evacuations are also starting.

 

[David in SW Blount]

No one expected the flooding today, til it happened.

That really complicates evacuation and sheltering . . . and this thing isn't even named yet.

Street flooding is fairly common in New Orleans. We lived there from 1981-1985. The very first morning after we moved in, there was heavy rain and the street completely filled up with water. I'm sure the neighbors were laughing at our newbie-ness as we stood out in front of the house gawking!

 

[warneagle]

The GFS went way east with it.

 

[Kory]

We have a tropical depression next update.

 

[KoD]

PTC2 is pretty naked this morning

COD NEXLAB: Satellite and Radar

Check out COD Meteorology's Satellite and Radar Data

weather.cod.edu

Most convection is offset from the center in the broad cyclonic flow, westward quadrants.
I'm still thinking GFS is wrong & the ICON (with support of the euro) will reward my solidarity with it. I agree with the meandering further west before making the northward turn and sliding up LA towards the ArkLaTex.
I'm very curious to see how it plays out. Not just the track but also how well Possible Potential Tropical Something Barry Perhaps can develop.

 

[bjdeming]

... home grown mesoscale/nontropical derived systems are fascinating

While the looming catastrophic flooding is sobering, as a layperson I've got to say this is the first time I've ever watched the formation of a tropical system from the inside, so to speak (the Hurricane Hunter reports and other NHC information on the website, posts here, NWS online) and it's fascinating, too. Horrible, in this instance, but awesome to watch an Earth system do its thing. If only people didn't have to suffer from it.

 

[skelly]

I have seen and heard about these things “following the convection” so to speak...

 

[warneagle]

This is worrying.

 

[WesL]

Carnival Valor diverted from returning home to New Orleans this morning and has instead docked in Mobile.

 

[TornadoFan]

And we officially have TS Barry.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Arlene Public Advisory

www.nhc.noaa.gov

 

[South AL Wx]

We now have TS Barry:

...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM BARRY...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 88.7W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the Louisiana coast
from the Mouth of the Pearl River to Morgan City.

A Storm Surge Warning is now in effect for the Louisiana coast from
the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Shell Beach.

A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for the Mississippi coast
east of the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama
border...and for Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including
metropolitan New Orleans.

A Storm Surge Watch is now in effect for the Mississippi coast from
the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border.


**Admin action - Undeleted this post for historical purposes- since it has the location information.** - WesL

 

[South AL Wx]

Barry is still forecast to reach hurricane strength before landfall, but NHC notes in their discussion that moderate northerly shear is now expected to persist until landfall. Hopefully that will help to keep the intensity in check.