Hurricane Hurricane Barry (Gulf of Mexico)

[Kory]

We’ve got invest 92L tagged over the Southeast US. Model consensus has this developing in the Gulf. But these ULL set ups can be tricky (induced shear that causes center reformations, etc). Lots of model watching to see where the center develops, redevelops, etc.

 

[WesL]

 

[WesL]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A trough of low pressure located over central Georgia is forecast to
move southward toward the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, where a broad
area of low pressure is expected to form in a couple of days. Some
gradual development is possible thereafter and a tropical depression
is likely to form by the end of the week while the low meanders near
the northern Gulf Coast. Regardless of development, this system has
the potential to produce heavy rainfall along portions of the
northern and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast later this week. For more
information about the rainfall threat, please see products issued by
your local weather forecast office and the NOAA Weather Prediction
Center. Interests along the northern Gulf Coast and the Florida
peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

 

[Bama Ravens]

12z GFS is on board with a Texas landfall. Canadian is gradually trending west too as it now has a landfall near New Orleans.

 

[Kory]

UKMET is into NOLA and then north into MS. GFS might be suffering convective feedback issues much like why it had it going to far east just a couple days ago. I'd bet on a LA landfall if I had to right now.

 

[Kory]

UKMET is bad news for NOLA. Right front quadrant of a 976mb hurricane.

 

[Bama Ravens]

12z Euro at 7am Saturday.

 

[Bama Ravens]

 

[Kory]

Solid east shift by the consensus TVCN model on the 00z models.

 

[Bama Ravens]

I know y’all want rain, but I really need this thing to head west. I really don’t want my one family vacation spoiled.

 

[Kory]

Models converging on a central or southeast Louisiana landfall.

 

[Equus]

Reminds me a little of a weaker Alicia... home grown mesoscale/nontropical derived systems are fascinating

 

[Bama Ravens]

RIP to my beach trip

 

[Kory]

Yeah, it’s not looking good. That’s a solid hurricane in Louisiana. I think it’ll begin to slow down as it moves inland.

 

[Equus]

Would have gladly traded with you, I was down there LAST weekend, when I should have planned for THIS weekend lmao... not that there is any way I could have planned for something like this that far in advance. Hopefully she sends me some nice outer band/waterspout/high surf pics from the office at Fort Morgan.

 

[Kory]

I may drive back and help my family prepare. Euro is a doozy for NOLA and Baton Rouge.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

There’s a low level swirl near 29N/86W on a WSW motion.

 

[Equus]

I'm used to these taking days to organize once they head offshore, this one seems to be on a slightly accelerated schedule

 

[Kory]

I'm used to these taking days to organize once they head offshore, this one seems to be on a slightly accelerated schedule

Once the low and mid level vorticity stack, it’s game on. Gotta watch for some slight northerly shear that may push dry air in.

 

[KoD]

As always I'm excitedly waiting for the next Levi Cowan video to break down the components of the system, how it may progress and the possible outcomes.
His video from yesterday was great and hopefully there'll be another later this evening.

Tropical Tidbits

Tropical weather and Atlantic hurricane information, analysis, and forecasts by Levi Cowan.

www.tropicaltidbits.com