Hurricane Hurricane Barry (Gulf of Mexico)

[Kory]

This is bad news.

 

[Kory]

Euro and GFS are locked and loaded on timing, track, and nearly the same strength. South Central to southeast Louisiana Friday night into Saturday.

 

[Kory]

NOLA is going to be a war zone if these QPF amounts are even close to correct.

 

[warneagle]

Yeah the GFS has really fallen in line with the Euro solution from earlier today which is definitely not a good sign.

 

[Kory]

 

[warneagle]

Yeah, the forecast rainfall totals are...not pretty.

 

[gangstonc]

Where and how fast is this thing supposed to go after it makes landfall?

 

[warneagle]

Basically due north according to the GFS, and definitely not fast enough.

 

[Kory]

00z GFS stalls it on the Louisiana coastline.

 

[Bama Ravens]

Looks like the 00z GFS might be shifting back west some.

 

[Bama Ravens]

Due north turn Saturday morning. Landfall in south-central LA at 980 mb.

00z GFS valid at 1pm CDT Saturday

 

[Bama Ravens]

00z GFS rainfall projections through 7pm Monday

 

[KoD]

I've been following the ICON model with this system and it seems to be a few steps ahead of the GFS. Pretty consistent too. Of course we won't know until it verifies but here's a segment from Sunday evenings run: (7mB gif)

https://m.imgur.com/2kzRoAk

I'm very interested to see if the northward turn will happen as depicted on most of guidance.

 

[Bama Ravens]

Euro had a pretty big westward shift in the 00z run overnight. Back to a LA/TX border area landfall.

 

[Kory]

It’s a western outlier per the consensus model which continues to point at central Louisiana.

 

[Kory]

Flooding is already beginning in the city of New Orleans. This is gonna be a long duration event.

 

[Kory]

Confirmed tornado near the University of New Orleans moving into the city.

 

[Kory]

Downtown New Orleans.

 

[warneagle]

Flooding is already beginning in the city of New Orleans. This is gonna be a long duration event.

Yeah, the GFS has this thing taking until late in the day on Monday to move out of Louisiana, so it would be dumping rain on southern Louisiana for an entire week. If there’s already flooding now...

 

[Kory]

They have cars floating downtown. They're gonna need to issue a flash flood emergency.