- Thread starter
- #61
Kory
Member
The GFS is bad. Very bad.
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Hurricane Hurricane Barry (Gulf of Mexico)
- Thread starter Kory
- Start date
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- 92l gulf of mexico invest
Bama Ravens
Member
My hope was that the GFS would go a little west
like the Euro did overnight.
1pm CDT Saturday:
like the Euro did overnight.
1pm CDT Saturday:
Evan
Member
I don't know if most people realize that the system of levees, pumps, and canals that keep New Orleans from flooding are in worse shape right now than they've probably ever been. So many pumps are offline, at lowered capacity/flow, or only work part of the time.
New Orleans is in a really bad place. Moderate rain storms have been causing bad flooding in the city for a while now. With the upstream Mississippi flooding and the precip NOLA is receiving already, things do not bode well for the city.
Unfortunately, New Orleans needs a massive influx of spending and a restructure of how they do flood control, use land, and manage the overall system that protects the city. If that doesn't happen then I believe New Orleans is going to suffer mightily over the next 10-20 years, and will be one bad Tropical system away from being Katrina-ed yet again. This system could even be the one to do it.
Evan
Member
To be honest, it doesn't really matter. Whether it is the Mississippi or an overwhelmed flood control system, New Orleans is going to have catastrophic flooding if this system takes the forecasted track and the rainfall amounts come anywhere close to verifying. The overall flood control system is not in good shape and cannot even deal with what they're experiencing right now.
- Thread starter
- #65
Kory
Member
Add in the fact that the pumps when at 100% can only handle 1” of rain the first hour and then 1/2” every hour after.
- Thread starter
- #66
Kory
Member
UKMET went west. Way west. UKMET and Euro run basically the same physics so the west bias is hitting hard. GFS has an east bias. I don’t see any change to current thinking. My current worry is a stall as steering currents collapse.
warneagle
Member
Yeah, it didn’t bite on that. Plus its track over land is east of where it was at 06z, basically right up the Mississippi. Let’s hope that’s wrong because that’s basically a worst case scenario.
warneagle
Member
Wow.
Bama Ravens
Member
Honestly, I think NHC probably has a pretty good track as of now.
Equus
Member
NHC isn't pulling any punches with the intensity forecast... pretty rare to see a storm expected to get that strong that close to the coast at all times. Not quite Humberto vibes but could certainly be some power outages and surge to go with the nasty flooding.
- Moderator
- #71
As with Harvey, and with Michael you don’t need to have any model showing a category 3+ in the early stages before you realize you are actually dealing with one at the end. This system could really make a go at some rapid intensification with the low shear, very warm waters, and little dry air. There’s a very expansive area of 75+ dew points all around it.
Anyone have a working link to a recent GOM TCHP map?
warneagle
Member
State of emergency issued by the governor in LA.
Evan
Member
Exactly, and if the GFS track and rainfall amounts were to verify, it's pretty much guaranteed you're going to exceed those limits. Especially if you end up with a stalled system that has one foot on land and the other foot in the Gulf. That would allow the system to constantly bring in moisture and put up intense convective towers due to the bathtub water it's pulling from.
Evan
Member
I'm sure I'll end up eating my words, and I know it's still a ways out with a good amount of uncertainty, but it I were in charge I'd be starting evacuations from New Orleans today or tomorrow. I truly hope the worst case scenario doesn't happen, but when is the last time Louisiana or the Gulf Coast dodged a bullet?
Evan
Member
It's down (for whatever reason). But, I have a rough substitute that might get you close:
http://isotherm.rsmas.miami.edu/heat/weba/atlantic.php?yda=191&year=2019&month=7&yyear=2019
Thanks Evan. Wow... it's cooking. 
- Thread starter
- #78
Kory
Member
Louisiana takes more bullets than it dodges. Sadly, it is smack dab in the middle with unfortunate physiographic features that aid in amplifying these systems.
12z HWRF is a major hurricane right over the city of New Orleans.
- Thread starter
- #79
Kory
Member
The media down there, outside of social media mets, have been very coy regarding this threat until...this morning's debacle that brought NOLA to its knees.
skelly
Member
Anyone who can get out on their own should go ahead. The state of LA and Feds need to make arrangements for getting the others out. This time the roofs might not be above water...
