I hope their predictions are wrong. Unfortunately they do a very good job getting it right, at least up here in N AL. I'm sure there's extra uncertainty though in this instance. Fingers crossed.
Add in the fact that the pumps when at 100% can only handle 1” of rain the first hour and then 1/2” every hour after.I don't know if most people realize that the system of levees, pumps, and canals that keep New Orleans from flooding are in worse shape right now than they've probably ever been. So many pumps are offline, at lowered capacity/flow, or only work part of the time.
New Orleans is in a really bad place. Moderate rain storms have been causing bad flooding in the city for a while now. With the upstream Mississippi flooding and the precip NOLA is receiving already, things do not bode well for the city.
Unfortunately, New Orleans needs a massive influx of spending and a restructure of how they do flood control, use land, and manage the overall system that protects the city. If that doesn't happen then I believe New Orleans is going to suffer mightily over the next 10-20 years, and will be one bad Tropical system away from being Katrina-ed yet again. This system could even be the one to do it.
My hope was that the GFS would go a little west
like the Euro did overnight.
1pm CDT Saturday:
Honestly, I think NHC probably has a pretty good track as of now.UKMET went west. Way west. UKMET and Euro run basically the same physics so the west bias is hitting hard. GFS has an east bias. I don’t see any change to current thinking. My current worry is a stall as steering currents collapse.
Add in the fact that the pumps when at 100% can only handle 1” of rain the first hour and then 1/2” every hour after.
State of emergency issued by the governor in LA.
Anyone have a working link to a recent GOM TCHP map?
Louisiana takes more bullets than it dodges. Sadly, it is smack dab in the middle with unfortunate physiographic features that aid in amplifying these systems.I'm sure I'll end up eating my words, and I know it's still a ways out with a good amount of uncertainty, but it I were in charge I'd be starting evacuations from New Orleans today or tomorrow. I truly hope the worst case scenario doesn't happen, but when is the last time Louisiana or the Gulf Coast dodged a bullet?