Hurricane Hurricane Barry (Gulf of Mexico) (4 Viewers)

[Kory]

Who exactly is brushing off these storms?

Chris Franklin, a NOLA met, for one example. If I had a nickel every time he mentioned how intensity forecasts had been lowered in this 4pm newscast, I could fill up my car's gas tank (not really but he over-emphasized a 5-10 mph decrease in winds which was NEVER the main threat). But, he didn't even mention the hurricane warnings that were issued for the coastal parishes of Louisiana until his 4:30 newscast. Are you kidding me?

Has he taken a look at the QPFs? This is not something to be downplaying. Someone is going to be raked.

 

[WBB]

Hmm. I didn’t get that impression at all. I think he was pointing out that there are a lot of uncertainties, which there are, but we in SE Louisiana are expecting a ton of rain regardless.

 

[Kory]

I’m getting increasingly worried about a slow down or stall along the coast tomorrow into Saturday. That’s when the convergence band that is on the southern side will wrap inland as this transitions to more of a COL.

 

[Kory]

HRRR has hurricane gusts reaching Terrebonne and Lafourche Parishes tomorrow evening.

 

[Kory]

Umm...forecasted precipitable water values are 3-3.5 inches as Barry chugs inland Saturday. For reference, the Louisiana floods of 2016 holds the record precip water value at 2.78 inches. Yeah, the ceiling on this rainfall production is sky high...

 

[Blountwolf]

Still looking very bottom heavy this morning - which has helped tremendously in keeping LA from getting hammered with rain ahead of the storm at least. Looks to be starting to wrap around some convection, now to the east of New Orleans and rotating in. Won't be too heavy this morning, but as the heat of the day helps to fire off convection over land, more will rotate around and in and it should begin to strengthen. PWAT as mentioned above is still off the charts in the southern quadrants, so there are a lot of bad effects to come. A convergence line will likely fire off later today somewhere around the Mississippi river up in to Arkansas and stream downstream to the east. Looking forward to watching it all unfold through the day, and hoping the models are wrong about the amounts of rain we'll see.

 

[Kory]

Winds are likely 60-65 per latest recon.

 

[Blountwolf]

Visible shows that it's starting to wrap up. Lots more convection to the east than yesterday - the convergence line yesterday really moistened up the dry air aloft that had been keeping it down.

 

[Blountwolf]

SSTs have been bath water in that area recently. Plenty of ingredients to cook with if it gets its act together today.

 

[Kory]

Rivers are beginning to rise per the USGS gages...and not from rainfall. Backwater flooding from surge is beginning to take shape.

 

[Blountwolf]

Rivers are beginning to rise per the USGS gages...and not from rainfall. Backwater flooding from surge is beginning to take shape.

A bit ahead of schedule. Going to be a lot piling up if it just sits there.

 

[bjdeming]

Lake Ponchetrain is up 2 feet since Wednesday, per this news report. That's probably contributing to the backup a little bit, too.

 

[Kory]

Local news media is live streaming this event.

 

[Kory]

Also, one of the best in the country.

https://twitter.com/DavidBernardTV

 

[Kory]

Tropical storm conditions reported as far east as Dauphin Island.

 

[warneagle]

NHC is forecasting it to get to hurricane strength again.

Winds are up to 65 mph at the new update. No change in pressure.

 

[warneagle]

Convection around the center looks better organized and it looks like it’s continuing to strengthen. Dropsonde data seems to support that.

 

[Jetstream]

Appears the lower level circulation is trying to stack under the the convection.

 

[Kory]

Yep. This thing is gonna wobble toward the coast as convection rotates from the southern to the southeastern and then eastern side.

 

[warneagle]

Appears the lower level circulation is trying to stack under the the convection.

The earlier intensity forecasts may prove to have been correct after all.