Hurricane Category 4 Hurricane Helene

240k now without power on the FL west coast.
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Clancy said:
The easiest way is to just go to the local office page on the NWS, and then click on a county or city on their WWA map. It'll take you to the forecast page for that specific area, including watches and warning messages.
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Thanks - was hoping there was a national map interface where I could click a spot. I've got folks all over the impacted areas.
 
warneagle said:
some video footage of the dumbest people on planet earth
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Oh, you so underestimate people and their capacity to do dumb things. ;)
 
wx_guy said:
I feel like the NHC is gonna wait for a 2nd recon pass to upgrade to Cat 4. Depends on what happens on the next pass I feel.
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They just declared C4.
684
WTNT64 KNHC 262218
TCUAT4

Hurricane Helene Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
620 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...HELENE NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft currently investigating Helene
recently found that the maximum sustained winds have increased to
130 mph (215 km/h). The minimum central pressure has also decreased
to 947 mb (27.96 inches) based on dropsonde data.

SUMMARY OF 620 PM EDT...2220 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 84.5W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM S OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Pasch
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The ADT numbers Helene is popping out are incredible: https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/09L-list.txt

In a 3 hour period, the ADT method suggests Helene had a pressure drop of 26.8mbar. I went back and looked at Michael's historical ADT numbers and the peak pressure drop it measured was 25.3mbar. It is possible I missed a more extreme 3 hour period, however, the mere fact that the ADT is showing a comparable period of RI is astounding to me.

We knew rapid intensification was highly probable, however, it seems like we're setting up for another case of a rapidly intensifying storm making landfall while still intensifying.

Obviously, there's still several hours before landfall, but hard to imagine we see any substantial weakening. Probably the best we can hope for is that Helene stops intensifying soon. Don't see any current evidence that's happening though so far.
 
I was reading the Asheville hurricane local statement and realized how many of the warnings today mention landslide risk.

Most people who live in landslide-prone areas know which places are most at risk, but I looked up a few online info maps in case anyone is still thinking evacuation over:

USGS landslide hazard map https://www.usgs.gov/tools/us-landslide-inventory-and-susceptibility-map

Western North Carolina https://unca.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=e9f79de934f24e40a71bab8db8050612/

Kentucky https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/b1c7fbfc66fd4ac39e6d06c3052e8f99

South Carolina https://hub.arcgis.com/datasets/SCGIS::landslide-hazus3/about

Virginia https://energy.virginia.gov/geology/FEMA_landslide.shtml

Georgia was hard to track down; the interactive USGS inventory might help, and here is the AGS page with Georgia geology links https://www.americangeosciences.org/critical-issues/states/georgia

Edit: Don't know if the hill country in Alabama is at risk from Helene, but just in general, here is the state geologist's page on landslides: https://www.gsa.state.al.us/gsa/geo...several types of,creep, slides, and rockfalls.
 
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Western NC is very prone to landslides, flash flooding, and river flooding. I'm downstream of part of that (but on a stable hilltop).
 
In 13 hours (4am to current), Helene has underwent a wind increase of 40mph (90 to 130) and a 19mb pressure drop (966 to 947).
 
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