Hurricane Category 4 Hurricane Helene

[warneagle]

18z SHIPS RI probabilities:

20 knots in the next 12 hours = 27%

25 knots in the next 24 hours = 68% (so in other words a 68% chance of hitting Cat 3 by 18z Thursday)

30 knots in the next 24 hours = 51%

35 knots in the next 24 hours = 37%

40 knots in the next 24 hours = 20% (so in other words a 20% chance of hitting Cat 4 by 18z Thursday)

45 knots in the next 36 hours = 23%

55 knots in the next 48 hours = 12%

 

[warneagle]

They've already got flash flood warnings in southwestern NC, and this is before Helene dumps a foot of rain on them.

 

[Blountwolf]

At the risk of jinxing it - I'm really glad it doesn't look better now than it does.

 

[KoD]

Hey mods, I asked a similar question with the last tropical threat. Are we going to post inland storm threats (tornadoes, flooding, wind damage) in this thread or another? Seems like tornado threat this go around will probably be more potent than the last event.

I haven't confered with other mods or the admins so this may change, but for now it is entirely appropriate to discuss tornado related issues here. Usually it does not conflict with the broader hurricane discussion. If the tornado threat chat dilutes things we can separate it. For now feel free to discuss it here, however you or anyone else is entirely free to make a dedicated thread on the other subforum too!

 

[Clancy]

Tornado ongoing in south Georgia.

 

[Argus]

Already had a tornado warning in Rabun and Habersham in northeast Georgia. Unrelated to Helene.

 

[warneagle]

More flash flood warnings well in advance of the storm. Unless the rainfall forecasts underperform this is gonna be very very bad up in the mountains.

 

[wx_guy]

At the risk of jinxing it - I'm really glad it doesn't look better now than it does.

What are you seeing? It is looking pretty healthy to me.

 

[Blountwolf]

What are you seeing? It is looking pretty healthy to me.

Dry air entrainment. Don't get me wrong, I don't think it'll last much longer, I'm just grasping at any straws that keep Helene from RI. I was being glad that happened - we could be looking at a clear eyed monster RI'ing right now - just being glad it isn't yet.

 

[wx_guy]

18z Hurricane models:

HWRF 919 mb 155 mph just east of Tallahassee
HMON 925 mb 155 mph near Tallahassee
HAFS-A 941 mb 145 mph just east of Tallahassee
HAFS-B 924 mb 155 mph just east of Tallahassee

 

[TornadoFan]

Looks like some new towers are going up.

 

[wx_guy]

974 mb and 85 mph at 7 PM CDT update

 

[TornadoFan]

At least the dry air lasted for a little while longer.

 

[Blountwolf]

18z Hurricane models:

HWRF 919 mb 155 mph just east of Tallahassee
HMON 925 mb 155 mph near Tallahassee
HAFS-A 941 mb 145 mph just east of Tallahassee
HAFS-B 924 mb 155 mph just east of Tallahassee

145 to 155? Good grief - Opal was 150. Just... no. Those models just need to be wrong.
.

 

[Mike S]

Hey mods, I asked a similar question with the last tropical threat. Are we going to post inland storm threats (tornadoes, flooding, wind damage) in this thread or another? Seems like tornado threat this go around will probably be more potent than the last event.

On the old board we'd start an after landfall thread in the severe weather forum.

I'm not particularly married to either idea, though part of me likes everything in one thread for the sake of posterity.

 

[DUUUVAAAAALLLLLLLLLLLL]

This blog is beginning to move at the old WU speeds. Where is Stormtop? Taz?

 

[The Nino]

This blog is beginning to move at the old WU speeds. Where is Stormtop? Taz?

I’m all you need brother

 

[TH2002]

Just me trying to keep up with this thread:

 

[Clancy]

8 PM EDT advisory. Forecast remains generally on track. One heck of a wind field on Helene thus far.

 

[MikeP]

Gonna be really interesting/alarming to see her after being completely free of the Yucatán and the dry air intrusion. Watch for that eye to clear out and she'll really start venting. Stadium effect anyone?