Hurricane Category 4 Hurricane Helene

The NHC forecast track looks way too reliant on the tropical models. I do not expect it to be that far west. The EURO, GFS, HRRR, NAM, and a slew of other global operational models along with their ensemble members suggest this is more likely to track on the eastern side of the cone closer towards Perry to Keaton Beach to Jena, FL with the circulation tracking well east of Atlanta, GA.
 
Taylor Campbell said:
The NHC forecast track looks way too reliant on the tropical models. I do not expect it to be that far west. The EURO, GFS, HRRR, NAM, and a slew of other global operational models along with their ensemble members suggest this is more likely to track on the eastern side of the cone closer towards Perry to Keaton Beach to Jena, FL with the circulation tracking well east of Atlanta, GA.
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They seem to be leaning towards GEPS ensemble guidance vs. that of GFS, Euro and others, though I'm not sure why.
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Clancy said:
They seem to be leaning towards GEPS ensemble guidance vs. that of GFS, Euro and others, though I'm not sure why.
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I wonder if it's because of that ULL tug over west TN/west KY. That makes the most sense because the way the GEFS is, it's too far east to get pulled in as much as it would on the GEPS. Just my two cents.
 
JPWX said:
I wonder if it's because of that ULL tug over west TN/west KY. That makes the most sense because the way the GEFS is, it's too far east to get pulled in as much as it would on the GEPS. Just my two cents.
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Makes the most sense to me. I'm definitely not necessarily discounting it, I had commented about the possibility of wobbles to the west previously and I think it's still possible, though the majority of guidance has definitely preferred a track east of ATL proper the past few runs.
 
Clancy said:
Makes the most sense to me. I'm definitely not necessarily discounting it, I had commented about the possibility of wobbles to the west previously and I think it's still possible, though the majority of guidance has definitely preferred a track east of ATL proper the past few runs.
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0z Icon continues it east track and it seems like the storm is Cat 3 at landfall.
 
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