Hurricane Category 4 Hurricane Helene

[KevinH]

Not much if the eye avoids going over land directly. Otherwise, the only thing that would keep this from intensifying and reaching its full potential is a EWRC (Eyewall Replacement Cycle).

Oh ok…

Once again…..

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Tonight’s 00z GFS run is 955mb right over Perry, FL

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[wx_guy]

The 0z HAFS models both want to put a Cat 5 in the Big Bend.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Rapid intensification tends to over exceed expectations. There are several operational global models such as the ICON, CMC, JMA, GFS, ACC that drop the storm pressure from the max/min average of 974mb 7pm CDT Wednesday to the max/min average of 947mb 7pm CDT Thursday.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[Casuarina Head]

I’m a bit skeptical as to strength and impacts in FL. The EPS, including its operational run, has consistently shown surprisingly weak winds relative to MSLP (the operational EC shows TS winds with a MSLP in the low 970s mb), and even though the HWRF/HMON/HAFS have shown more deepening, they, like the global models, have also suggested a somewhat sloppy structure prior to and during landfall, with very weak winds on the western side. The orientation of the deep-layer shear-vectors relative to Helene’s trajectory suggests the potential for (significant?) shear and dry air over the northern Gulf of Mexico. These factors would limit Helene’s intensification and might also ensure that winds do not mix efficiently to the surface. (A lot of systems in recent years have seen much lower winds at the surface vs. flight-level, as the Atlantic basin has gotten drier and/or more stable. Recall Idalia. Maybe there is a connection?) Along with Helene’s fast forward speed, these considerations might reduce surge significantly vs. the 10’-15’ that the NHC currently expects. I think Helene will deepen over the Gulf, but not much lower than the lower 950s or upper 940s mb, and its actual impact will end up being less than advertised.

 

[Sawmaster]

Not sure about the above, but it's going to be very interesting to see how it intensifies.

 

[Clancy]

High Risk for flooding issued for the Lower Appalachians due to combined rainfall from Helene and an incoming front.

 

[KevinH]

I just noticed that they still have Helene as a hurricane when she is in CENTRAL Georgia. I have been here 14 years and that has never happened.

 

[Sawmaster]

We've got a whole week of rain coming in NW Georgia, W South Carolina and W North Carolina with Helene bringing a heavy start. Expected flooding is going to be as bad as anything in living memory according to all local forecasters. In our real estate boom of recent times I've noticed numerous new homes built in places I wouldn't want to be. That coupled with lots of people here new to the area is going to cause lots of unwanted surprises. Living on a hilltop I'll be OK if I get through the winds- that part does worry me. Stocking up on everything after work today and hoping for the best.

 

[Clancy]

We've got a whole week of rain coming in NW Georgia, W South Carolina and W North Carolina with Helene bringing a heavy start. Expected flooding is going to be as bad as anything in living memory according to all local forecasters. In our real estate boom of recent times I've noticed numerous new homes built in places I wouldn't want to be. That coupled with lots of people here new to the area is going to cause lots of unwanted surprises. Living on a hilltop I'll be OK if I get through the winds- that part does worry me. Stocking up on everything after work today and hoping for the best.

Yep. Folks inland need to take the flooding threat very seriously, even folks who usually aren't bothered by flooding events.

 

[notsoencrypted]

From discussion #8 (currently most recent one):

Despite the increased intensity, the aircraft data, along with radar data from Mexico and Cuba, show that Helene hasnot yet formed a well-defined inner core.

It's really interesting to me how much this storm is strengthening, even with its struggles to pull its core together.

 

[bjdeming]

Yep. Folks inland need to take the flooding threat very seriously, even folks who usually aren't bothered by flooding events.

A slower forward speed might lessen that and the wind threat inland somewhat but at terrible cost for the landfall area. This system appears to be a no-winner any how one looks at it.

 

[Clancy]

A slower forward speed might lessen that and the wind threat inland somewhat but at terrible cost for the landfall area. This system appears to be a no-winner any how one looks at it.

Indeed, a bit of a "pick your poison" scenario, unfortunately.

 

[jaymackd3]

981 mb on last pass thru the core

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Nam has very hefty rain totals in the Appalachians and even in parts of east Alabama

 

[Blountwolf]

A blustery morning in Cancun. Looks like everything is as expected with Helene. Just scraping by the coast of the Yucatan, pressure right below hurricane strength. Later today based on her position, we'll likely get the "channel turbo" effect, as she continues to move over the deep hot Caribbean water being pulled northward through the channel by the current, and surface winds are channeled into the storm by the land masses.

 

[warneagle]

70 mph and 979 mb at 8 am. Have to assume it’ll be a hurricane at the next full update.