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Hurricane Category 4 Hurricane Helene

JPWX said:
Wow! Look at all that rain over Northeast MS
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Yep, that interaction with the former trough/cutoff ull is going to make this one a lot more interesting than usual on the weak side. Hopefully not too interesting - but if one of those lines is stuck over the same area a long time, the training effect could put down a lot of water. The whole system is going to slide back west over TN and up into KY after its trip through GA in a Fujiwara effect with the ULL, so we'll have to also watch for atmospheric river training lines being pulled out of the gulf for a while after for FL and GA (and maybe even up into SC and NC, depending on how it rotates around).
 
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Y'all - as someone who has watched these for a couple of decades very closely, this is not good. Helene is a huge, very healthy and rapidly organizing storm that is about to traverse over the best possible course across the gulf for intensification over the loop current, with no risk of dry air intrusion to the core to disrupt it, while being vented well by an upper level low. If you were to write a scenario for intensification, you'd be hard pressed to give it a better chance at it than Helene has. This one has me really anxious.
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Blountwolf said:
Y'all - as someone who has watched these for a couple of decades very closely, this is not good. Helene is a huge, very healthy and rapidly organizing storm that is about to traverse over the best possible course across the gulf for intensification over the loop current, with no risk of dry air intrusion to the core to disrupt it, while being vented well by an upper level low. If you were to write a scenario for intensification, you'd be hard pressed to give it a better chance at it than Helene has. This one has me really anxious.
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What a beast.
 
I expect we will see Hurricane Helene in a few minutes. The 06z HAFS models are still insistent on a cat 5. I’ve not seen the Hurricane models so dead set on such before.
 
I think we're going to be very thankful this doesn't have more time over water than it will have.
wx_guy said:
I expect we will see Hurricane Helene in a few minutes. The 06z HAFS models are still insistent on a cat 5. I’ve not seen the Hurricane models so dead set on such before.
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I really hope that doesn't verify. I hope her size may mitigate that possibility some - it will take a while for the winds to catch up to pressure. But it's not as far out of the realm of possibilities as I would like it to be.
 
Blountwolf said:
I think we're going to be very thankful this doesn't have more time over water than it will have.

I really hope that doesn't verify. I hope her size may mitigate that possibility some - it will take a while for the winds to catch up to pressure. But it's not as far out of the realm of possibilities as I would like it to be.
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Yeah the HAFSB 06z has a 180 mph 908 mb monster into the big bend
 
Yeah the hurricane models have been on this from the beginning with high end intensity except their hiccup on the 18z runs from a couple nights ago.
 
wx_guy said:
Yeah the HAFSB 06z has a 180 mph 908 mb monster into the big bend
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Straight up - at current speed and track, that would put 16+ ft of surge into a scoured clean by wind big bend area and 100+ gusts into ATL in the middle of the night. The forests of that area of FL and S GA would be a total mess for hundreds of miles inland. Absolute nightmare scenario. That REALLY needs to not happen.
 
80mph category 1 now
 
TornadoFan said:
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Oddly, Helene’s presentation on radar has not improved at all since last night. There is no well-defined core, and dry air is evident (half of the system is precipitation-free). If not for the cold cloud-tops, Helene is behaving more like a nontropical low. Reconnaissance confirms this: despite flight-level winds of up to 81 knots, SFMR only indicates low-end TS winds (35–40 knots) at the same location. So the flight-level winds do not seem to be mixing down to the surface efficiently. So far I don’t see a single SFMR reading that supports hurricane status.
 
Heavy rain bands preceding Helene are setting up around AL/GA. Helene will greatly exacerbate the problems these storms create and with it likely to cover the area in strong wind gusts, I worry there will be major issues with trees and power lines.
 
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