Ugh.
Looking ahead a day or two, the landslide risk is there, too, and to visualize a worst-case scenario (maybe), and since I think news coverage of Myanmar really doesn't show the extent, here's an expert on that disaster a few days ago, followed by this layperson non-expert's reasons why it probably won't be quite
that bad for us, but...
Ex-Helene (as it will be at this point); the wave of tropical moisture coming up: and the various processes, which I don't fully understand, of extratropical transition -- all of these wet/windy weather factors affecting a single mountainous region, one that has already had plenty of rainfall, for some time -- this is bad.
What folks in Myanmar had going against them was the additional component of
monsoon rains as well as the
typhoon AND
tropical soil (maybe steeper slopes and a burn-scar factor, too -- I don't know).
Please don't quote me on this, and I haven't read Dave's Eos post yet, but that soil might contain impermeable hard pans that could turn into slip planes, and its surface layers might be pretty shallow, too.
That last probably means shallow rooting of vegetation and less strength, compared to Appalachian vegetation, for holding slope soil in place.
Trouble is, a lot of that Appalachian vegetation still has its wind sails unfurled and the "anchors" usually come up when the "masts" go down.
My concern is that landslides have no precursors and often are unexpected. I don't think we'll see that Myanmar level of disaster, and I hope it doesn't get anywhere near that bad.
But the potential is there.
www.foxweather.com
