3/12/2006, 4/26/1984, 4/10/2008 (relative bust) are a few examples.
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Severe WX April 3rd-5th, 2023 (South, Southeast, Ohio Valley)
- Thread starter Lake Martin EF4
- Start date
KCweatherboy
Member
Thank you, I'll go look more into those!
Muwx
Member
Do you think this one is further west than the last one? Eastern Kansas and western Missouri largely avoided the last one, think that’ll happen again?
I think E KS and W MO are firmly in the highest threat area with this one, given the presence of that dryline in that general location and profiles favorable for tornadic supercells almost immediately off it.
...are you kidding me?
That's extremely high
...are you kidding me?
What exactly is causing some of these “high end” discussions and even an off hand, if just small reference to 3/4/74? Is it the expansive warm sector? Does it synoptically look like some of the higher end outbreaks we’ve saw?
Does it have some other features similar to high end outbreaks other than the long wave trough?
The intensity and wavelength of the trough (may favor discrete storm modes for a long period of time), very strong wind fields across a huge area, and moderate/strong instability across that same area all point to the potential of a large scale outbreak.
Awesome thank you for the explanation
I am seeing some insane SRH values off NAM soundings for Tuesday.
I do see a small warm nose on a few but again, I’m not educated enough or want to comment on this event, I want the Mets to do the talking on this as honestly idk enough haha
I do see a small warm nose on a few but again, I’m not educated enough or want to comment on this event, I want the Mets to do the talking on this as honestly idk enough haha
tennessee storm chaser
Member
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I agree 100 percent
Muwx
Member
Appreciate the response, obviously value your opinion on these things. Living in SWMO, I am interested to see what the SPC says tonight and how it all plays out.
MattPetrulli
Member
Would honestly be surprised to not have a day 3 moderate tomorrow.
warneagle
Member
Yeah I mean the models are in good agreement on what would be a substantial threat, I think that level of confidence in a high-end event is justified. This is an impressive system to say the least.
warneagle
Member
Well that's certainly an analog
May 4th 1999?Well that's certainly an analog
warneagle
Member
May 3rd all over again
Says may 4th on it unless I'm reading something wrong, but that's still a part of the larger scale outbreak that produced the F5 bridge creek tornado.
warneagle
Member
It's Zulu time. That would be 3 am CDT on the 4th, when the activity from the May 3rd outbreak was still ongoing.
