Brice
Member
Terrible how the areas that got devastated, are going to get potentially hit again by a big widespread significant severe weather event.
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Severe WX April 3rd-5th, 2023 (South, Southeast, Ohio Valley)
- Thread starter Lake Martin EF4
- Start date
Terrible how the areas that got devastated, are going to get potentially hit again by a big widespread significant severe weather event.
Yep.
That, and some of the action could track and be bad further to the East than it was last night.
warneagle
Member
It does remind me a bit of how the 14-15 April and 26-27 April 2011 events went back over the same areas in short succession (not suggesting this will be of that caliber, just that it's a similar case of two consecutive higher-end systems affecting the same area)
Penitentes
Member
Randy Bowers is with NWS Indianapolis (previously NWS Norman, I think?). Good—concerning—thread on this system.
CheeselandSkies
Member
Yeah, if that's the current EURO run he posted (and I don't see why it wouldn't be), still looks like all systems go for Tuesday.
I’m not going to pretend to know everything he’s talking about. But the specific tweet on “undular bores, subtle lead waves within the warm sector and their surface reflection (i.e., pre-frontal trough” rang some alarm bells as I was reading a paper by Confidi that was sent to me recently here on the 4/3/74 outbreak, and some of those obscure factors helped ratchet up the magnitude hugely on that day .
I had forgotten about this upcoming event.
Is this a repeat of yesterday?
Is this a repeat of yesterday?
There are some extremely concerning signals coming from the euro right now. And also see the tweet thread above linked to that Met and see how he is discussing the upcoming event
Was Friday's outbreak the April 15th 2011 to the upcoming April 3-4th rendition of the April 27th 2011? Hmm.
(Just so I don't get a bunch of how dare I mention April 27th 2011 lol... I'm not saying this will be as bad just saying the irony of those events and then potentially the irony of the current situation)
(Just so I don't get a bunch of how dare I mention April 27th 2011 lol... I'm not saying this will be as bad just saying the irony of those events and then potentially the irony of the current situation)
CheeselandSkies
Member
As we always say on here, "Super"-caliber outbreaks are extremely rare but it's never wise to discount anything when it comes to Mother Nature.
I’m not going to pontificate at all on this event.
Just judging by the tweets of some Mets and other professionals I follow, I’m going to let them do the talking/analyzing on this one…
Definitely, yeah I was just commenting cause I remember April 15th 2011 was a BIG deal when it happened it was one of the highest tornado counts in a single day in Alabama and then a week later April 27th 2011 usurped that event.
Yeah when that guy you mentioned is analyzing small detail stuff already that means a lot of large scale stuff is pretty darn good I would suspect.
brianc33710
Member
The "forgotten" outbreak.
KCweatherboy
Member
And when a professional met is referencing papers regarding the 2 largest outbreaks of all time to help forecast this one, I don't think that's a good sign either
I think the board as a whole would agree that some of the Mets should chime in a lot more with this thread, if this has the potential to be as dangerous or more as Friday.
Hopefully the Fred Pager works now lol.
Hopefully the Fred Pager works now lol.
KCweatherboy
Member
One thing I was really curious about if someone can help me out, what other events have occurred with longwave trough similar to the one being forecasted on the models? I know 4/3/74 and 11/10/02 were ones, but I don't know of any others off the top of my head
KCweatherboy
Member
Also looking at the 18zNAM it appears to be way underdoing temps still. For reference, the highest temp I saw modeled for Kansas City on Tuesday was 74 degrees whereas my weather app has a forecasted high of 82 and local mets are saying 80-82 for a high temp
Wind Driven Coconut
Well-Known Member
I do realize the reluctance to compare a modeled event 4 days out to the historical events of ‘74 and ‘11, but sometimes I do wish there was more discussion of what a hypothetical generational outbreak would look like if someone ‘drew it up’ 4 days prior.
I just say this because it seems like a lot of well respected Mets are ringing some serious alarm bells here without making said comparisons.
Please note I’m simply a weather enthusiast so not even sure what drawing up a textbook version of a generational outbreak would be…
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I just say this because it seems like a lot of well respected Mets are ringing some serious alarm bells here without making said comparisons.
Please note I’m simply a weather enthusiast so not even sure what drawing up a textbook version of a generational outbreak would be…
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Yeah well, I think this is what you would see 4 days out.
The small details will determine the likelihood of that ceiling being reached though.
That's why I urge more Mets to write out things in this forum this go around.
