Severe WX April 3rd-5th, 2023 (South, Southeast, Ohio Valley)

[Taylor Campbell]

I know no one wants to see this after today, but this is the CSU-MLP for next Tuesday/Wednesday.

 

[Jpgood97]

A lot of the same areas from tonight


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[UK_EF4]

Those CSU-MLP probabilities approaching high risk threshold there… wonder how they will change in the latest update. Nevertheless, significant event possible on Tuesday still it seems.

 

[UK_EF4]

Oh my gosh... never seen high risk probs on CSU MLP farther out than Day 2 on CSU.

 

[warneagle]

SPC is already mentioning strong/long-track tornadoes in the discussion for Day 4

 

[Gail]

Oh my gosh... never seen high risk probs on CSU MLP farther out than Day 2 on CSU.

Same areas as yesterday.

 

[notsoencrypted]

SPC is already mentioning strong/long-track tornadoes in the discussion for Day 4

And with Friday's storms having hit so many places, so many people are going to be more vulnerable on Tuesday. Ugh.

 

[Clancy]

Oh my gosh... never seen high risk probs on CSU MLP farther out than Day 2 on CSU.

Geez. Spring really kicking off with a bang this year.

 

[UK_EF4]

Geez. Spring really kicking off with a bang this year.

After Tuesday models seem to be quietening down so let's hope for that... but still have a lot to get through before that happens.

 

[Wind Driven Coconut]

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[tennessee storm chaser]

After Tuesday models seem to be quietening down so let's hope for that... but still have a lot to get through before that happens.

Yeah after Tuesday Wednesday system . We look to have a 7’to 10 day window of quiet weather before go back to severe pattern mid April.

 

[warneagle]

Going into yesterday I was sort of of the mindset that yesterday was the appetizer and Tuesday was going to be the main course, so hopefully that doesn't end up being the case.

This is from St. Louis at 7 pm on Tuesday.

https://i1l.pivotalweather.com/sounding_images/gfs_2023040100_096_38.75--90.25.png

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Going into yesterday I was sort of of the mindset that yesterday was the appetizer and Tuesday was going to be the main course, so hopefully that doesn't end up being the case.

What most are still saying this morning from the professionals… that this was just appetizer to this upcoming week

 

[warneagle]

What most are still saying this morning from the professionals… that this was just appetizer to this upcoming week

Pretty good model agreement on a substantial threat without a lot of obvious caveats. Some of the forecast soundings I pulled from Missouri on Tuesday afternoon/evening had some capping issues present but otherwise I don't see an obvious failure mode.

 

[ColdFront]

Pretty good model agreement on a substantial threat without a lot of obvious caveats. Some of the forecast soundings I pulled from Missouri on Tuesday afternoon/evening had some capping issues present but otherwise I don't see an obvious failure mode.

Yeah, I kept seeing those same inversions/caps on the models for yesterday’s event, specifically the NAM. So I wonder if this is synoptically similar right now?

I think you and I briefly discussed those before the event really kicked off.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Yeah, I kept seeing those same inversions/caps on the models for yesterday’s event, specifically the NAM. So I wonder if this is synoptically similar right now?

I think you and I briefly discussed those before the event really kicked off.

The cap is key...(along with the strength/type of forcing). Seems to be a small sweet spot that allows for sustained, open warm sector supercells without snuffing them out, yet not allowing for quick upscale growth before they can organize and produce tornadoes. Yesterday struck that rare balance.

 

[UK_EF4]

Area averaged GFS sounding on MO/IL border for Tuesday afternoon. Very favourable environment. Region of strong upper level support. Concerning to say the least. If trends continue a Day 3 Moderate wouldn't surprise me.

 

[CentralKyWeather]

Tuesday afternoon has a supercell outbreak written all over it east of the front. Imo the same area that was in a High Risk in SW Tennessee is Hotspot right now.

 

[ColdFront]

The cap is key...(along with the strength/type of forcing). Seems to be a small sweet spot that allows for sustained, open warm sector supercells without snuffing them out, yet not allowing for quick upscale growth before they can organize and produce tornadoes. Yesterday struck that rare balance.

The southern (and even one of the cells in the north) cells ability to stay discrete basically the entire event yesterday was extremely surprising.

 

[ColdFront]

That warm sector.