Severe WX April 3rd-5th, 2023 (South, Southeast, Ohio Valley)

[Casuarina Head]

While the euro is pointing to those northern areas, i would be watching for a change...given the way the subtropical ridge has been flattening recently, climatology, plus the way the lower heights are still weighted toward the southwest, a southern trend could be coming.

Aren’t the climatologically-low heights relative to the mean rather than the individual members of the ensemble? If I am correct, then the orientation and location of the anomalies would not portend much. The 06Z EPS has, however, shifted slightly southward, while also depicting lower heights downstream. The surface reflection is even stronger vs. 00Z and hints at a dual structure, in line with a more pronounced negative tilt. Nevertheless, the overall trend is toward depth, not suppression, so I still do not see a major southward shift as of now.

 

[andyhb]

Some of these model forecasts for Tuesday are just simply off the charts. I don't want to start talking about historic potential 5 days out, but it's kind of hard to deny given the consensus from ensemble guidance.

 

[warneagle]

Yeah I mean some of these forecast soundings are nuts. Like, if you gave me a pen and said draw me an outbreak sounding, it would probably look something like this (Kansas City at 7 pm on Tuesday).

 

[Timhsv]

Some of these model forecasts for Tuesday are just simply off the charts. I don't want to start talking about historic potential 5 days out, but it's kind of hard to deny given the consensus from ensemble guidance.

I'm not referring anything here at all, BUT, I'm with Andy. I lived in northern Jefferson County on the the night of April 3rd of 74". I've read every chart, analog, book, resource you can imagine, and my passion for weather/Meteorology started from that night 49 years ago next week.

There's just something here thou. Monitoring and waiting..

 

[Former Member 1430]

Some of these model forecasts for Tuesday are just simply off the charts. I don't want to start talking about historic potential 5 days out, but it's kind of hard to deny given the consensus from ensemble guidance.

Yeah I don’t blame you however as I mentioned yesterday the writing seems to be on the wall so to speak. Hopefully the threat somehow gets tampered down

 

[andyhb]

 

[Clancy]

Hoo boy. Really scraping the States from top to bottom, huh.

 

[UK_EF4]

Yikes...

 

[Muwx]

The euro is a pretty significant distance further east than the GFS. Interested to see which one wins out.

 

[KCweatherboy]

Was cherrypicking model soundings off the 18z gfs and found one that analogs to 4/3/74 in Northern MO. Also not a fan of that sounding @warneagle given where it's at. That analog to 5/4/03 is also not a good sign especially since there were 2 F4's in the KC area, and just a large outbreak in general

 

[warneagle]

Was cherrypicking model soundings off the 18z gfs and found one that analogs to 4/3/74 in Northern MO. Also not a fan of that sounding @warneagle given where it's at. That analog to 5/4/03 is also not a good sign especially since there were 2 F4's in the KC area, and just a large outbreak in general

Yeah those analogs are concerning not just because they're big events but because you're getting hits for May-June thermodynamic environments for an early April event.

 

[Timhsv]

Just wow on this mornings GFS.

 

[ColdFront]

Yeah those analogs are concerning not just because they're big events but because you're getting hits for May-June thermodynamic environments for an early April event.

Yeah - you do not want the wind profiles/environment of early Spring with the instability you may see on a day in early June.

 

[Timhsv]

Screaming 500mb jet.Powerhouse system

 

[ColdFront]

Was cherrypicking model soundings off the 18z gfs and found one that analogs to 4/3/74 in Northern MO. Also not a fan of that sounding @warneagle given where it's at. That analog to 5/4/03 is also not a good sign especially since there were 2 F4's in the KC area, and just a large outbreak in general

I don’t think I’ve ever saw a 4/3/74 analog. When was the last lead up event that some models were showing that as an analog?

I’m a recent weather enthusiast(2-3 years) but I can’t imagine that’s something you see every day

 

[KevinH]

What is that a map of? Is it a probability of over 500 CAPE?

I had the same question! This is not the CAPE maps I am used to reading lol

 

[KevinH]

While the euro is pointing to those northern areas, i would be watching for a change...given the way the subtropical ridge has been flattening recently, climatology, plus the way the lower heights are still weighted toward the southwest, a southern trend could be coming.

Wait. What do you mean when you say a SOUTHERN TREND……

?????

 

[ColdFront]

Was cherrypicking model soundings off the 18z gfs and found one that analogs to 4/3/74 in Northern MO. Also not a fan of that sounding @warneagle given where it's at. That analog to 5/4/03 is also not a good sign especially since there were 2 F4's in the KC area, and just a large outbreak in general

MGM is Montgomery right? Wow

 

[KevinH]

Yeah those analogs are concerning not just because they're big events but because you're getting hits for May-June thermodynamic environments for an early April event.

I noticed that too. IA and IL tend to have their severe weather after May… not in APRIL

 

[andyhb]

Eh, IA and IL have had some very nasty March and April severe weather events (Palm Sunday 1920 and 1965 for example). It's their season for larger outbreaks too.