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  • Current Tropical Systems
    Erin

Severe WX April 3rd-5th, 2023 (South, Southeast, Ohio Valley)

KCweatherboy said:
One thing I was really curious about if someone can help me out, what other events have occurred with longwave trough similar to the one being forecasted on the models? I know 4/3/74 and 11/10/02 were ones, but I don't know of any others off the top of my head
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3/12/2006, 4/26/1984, 4/10/2008 (relative Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency) are a few examples.
 
Muwx said:
Do you think this one is further west than the last one? Eastern Kansas and western Missouri largely avoided the last one, think that’ll happen again?
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I think E KS and W MO are firmly in the highest threat area with this one, given the presence of that dryline in that general location and profiles favorable for tornadic supercells almost immediately off it.
 
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...are you kidding me?
 
andyhb said:
I think E KS and W MO are firmly in the highest threat area with this one, given the presence of that dryline in that general location and profiles favorable for tornadic supercells almost immediately off it.
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What exactly is causing some of these “high end” discussions and even an off hand, if just small reference to 3/4/74? Is it the expansive warm sector? Does it synoptically look like some of the higher end outbreaks we’ve saw?

Does it have some other features similar to high end outbreaks other than the long wave trough?
 
I *think* we might have a Day 3 Moderate risk out tomorrow across Missouri and Illinois. I know no real use in 'predicting' what SPC outlooks are going to be but just thought I would say anyway.
 
ColdFront said:
What exactly is causing some of these “high end” discussions and even an off hand, if just small reference to 3/4/74? Is it the expansive warm sector? Does it synoptically look like some of the higher end outbreaks we’ve saw?

Does it have some other features similar to high end outbreaks other than the long wave trough?
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The intensity and wavelength of the trough (may favor discrete storm modes for a long period of time), very strong wind fields across a huge area, and moderate/strong instability across that same area all point to the potential of a large scale outbreak.
 
andyhb said:
I think E KS and W MO are firmly in the highest threat area with this one, given the presence of that dryline in that general location and profiles favorable for tornadic supercells almost immediately off it.
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Appreciate the response, obviously value your opinion on these things. Living in SWMO, I am interested to see what the SPC says tonight and how it all plays out.
 
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