Evan
Member
It this real? SPC is going high risk for tomorrow? Never saw that coming after seeing the models today. Wonder what they are seeing? Seems very...aggressive.
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I’m just not seeing a lot of discrete stuff with this setup ...Get the feeling the warm front and any comma head or bowing structures just below it could be the big story for tomorrow, probably significant swaths of wind damage with isolated possibly strong tornadoes. Any supercell in the warm sector is going to be trouble especially where we get isolated backing and closest to the better dynamics but I have storm mode questions and certainly wonder if the warm sector doesn't get junked up by showers and merging multicell clusters.
Someone's going to get a significant tornado but whether it comes from a comma head (or, heaven forbid a supercell or a Palm Sunday 94 supercell cluster) on the warm front or a supercell that avoids messy clusters, hard to say just yet. The 45% wind swath was a good call though; I think that is applicable in more Dixie events than it's issued for.
Yes, which I think is a good move. Also for the MDT risk- I think there is too much veering in the low levels, south of the warm front which is where discrete supercells are possible. Only right on (or north) of the warm are seeing backing--this should limit the significant tornado threat to a fairly small area.Well BMX has now shifted the boundaries further south and the 5 bands are packed even tighter than they were before. From Hamilton to Gadsden north is no severe risk. Jasper, Birmingham proper & Anniston are now in the marginal risk zone, although Tuscaloosa, the south tip of Jefferson Co, and most of Shelby Co is in slight. Just south of Shelby Co & Tuscaloosa, Clanton to Alexander City is in the enhanced zone. From Demopolis, Selma, Montgomery & Auburn south you have the moderate risk. Given this trend, I guess we will have just everyday storms with a boatload of rain. Although that in and of itself will cause plenty of problems.
This Chilton County storm has got to have some pretty impressive hail. Really surprised there's no SVR. Has to be well over severe criteria.
More impressive than that is the 106mph velocity signature.
Elevated storms are so loud