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Severe WX April 19-20, 2020 Severe Weather Threat (2 Viewers)

warneagle

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Does tomorrow remind anyone of the Palm Sunday event...just positioned further south. I still think the warm front will not make much progress between Montgomery and B'ham, but will have to be watched for any surprises.
As the saying goes, speak of the devil and he'll show up in the SARS analogs.

nam4km_2020041812_036_32.69--89.62.png
 

andyhb

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The bullseye of the moderate is literally right over the violent tornado tracks in S MS. Concerned about the nocturnal component to this as well, LLJ really cranks post 00z across AL/GA and eventually into the Carolinas.
 

Kory

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The bullseye of the moderate is literally right over the violent tornado tracks in S MS. Concerned about the nocturnal component to this as well, LLJ really cranks post 00z across AL/GA and eventually into the Carolinas.
Yeah 50-60kts across southern 2/3 of AL/GA per the Euro. That MDT likely expands East.
 

warneagle

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There's also a moderate risk of excessive rainfall across most of the outlook area.

EV6FccvXkAEfAGm
 

darkskys25

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If you go by the nws graphic and you live in tuscaloosa co you can go from slight to enhanced to moderate all in 1 co! I think thats a great graphic to show how dramatic the cutoff is going to be from the haves and the have nots. This morning i noticed several models are dead set on montgomery area if you go by the uh streaks. Not sure if thats changed but you get the idea as of now the tornado threat remains s of 20/59 and id say from demopolis s. With the sharp cutoff there is going to be a surprise i feel. Further s or further n.
 

Richardjacks

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All of the models are showing a very sharp cutoff between 0 Cape and 2000+ Cape, here is a look at the 18z NAM: Wherever that sharp cutoff ends up will make a very strong boundary/baroclinic zone....creating a path of least resistance for the surface low.
1587240577832.png
 

Richardjacks

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If you go by the nws graphic and you live in tuscaloosa co you can go from slight to enhanced to moderate all in 1 co! I think thats a great graphic to show how dramatic the cutoff is going to be from the haves and the have nots. This morning i noticed several models are dead set on montgomery area if you go by the uh streaks. Not sure if thats changed but you get the idea as of now the tornado threat remains s of 20/59 and id say from demopolis s. With the sharp cutoff there is going to be a surprise i feel. Further s or further n.
looks like we are thinking the same thing...just a few miles could make a huge difference, I am still thinking south toward Montgomery/Demopolis, but there ain't no guarantee.
 

darkskys25

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looks like we are thinking the same thing...just a few miles could make a huge difference, I am still thinking south toward Montgomery/Demopolis, but there ain't no guarantee.
Haha we were definitely thinking the same thing at the same time. Yep demopolis to montgomery is my spot where i think the greatest tornado threat will be. Every mile will make a difference.
 

Richardjacks

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The 18z NAM is more bullish on the warm front getting further north, it even has a break in the precip with the surface low still back into Miss. Check out
the difference in Td's between Bham and Tcl!

1587241194984.png
 

xJownage

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I don't know about the rest of you, but the risk for flooding has me VERY concerned. I have a feeling this is going to be one of those days where we're going to see a large area of green-outlined polygons.
 

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