Severe WX April 19-20, 2020 Severe Weather Threat

[Evan]

It this real? SPC is going high risk for tomorrow? Never saw that coming after seeing the models today. Wonder what they are seeing? Seems very...aggressive.

 

[Equus]

Some of the CAMs are showing doom and gloom but I think overall uncertainty is a little higher than last weekend; all it'd take is one organized isolated supercell going gonzo in the warm sector or a Beauregard-esque warm front rider to make an historic day but still I have questions on storm mode and how far north the warm sector makes it before I'll be convinced a high is a great idea this early

 

[bwalk]

Per NWS CHAT: 06z update will be ‘high risk’. Unverified at this time.

 

[warneagle]

After all the rumors and buildup, it stays a moderate risk.

 

[Equus]

Hearing all kinds of rumors from behind the scenes chats. Not sure what if any of it to believe. Holding at MDT seems a good call though

Insane probability gradient though; Huntsville gen tstm and Montgomery moderate. Warm front placement will tell practically the entire story

 

[ARCC]

Latest HRRR has 3000 sbcape into Shelby County. The RAP has it north of BHM.

 

[Equus]

With Beauregard et al fresh on my mind, just keep the WF south of here please

 

[ARCC]

I don't pay attention to the RAP so I don't know how reliable, but a run or so ago would carry a significant tornado risk well into the night.

 

[Equus]

Get the feeling the warm front and any comma head or bowing structures just below it could be the big story for tomorrow, probably significant swaths of wind damage with isolated possibly strong tornadoes. Any supercell in the warm sector is going to be trouble especially where we get isolated backing and closest to the better dynamics but I have storm mode questions and certainly wonder if the warm sector doesn't get junked up by showers and merging multicell clusters.

Someone's going to get a significant tornado but whether it comes from a comma head (or, heaven forbid a supercell or a Palm Sunday 94 supercell cluster) on the warm front or a supercell that avoids messy clusters, hard to say just yet. The 45% wind swath was a good call though; I think that is applicable in more Dixie events than it's issued for.

 

[brianc33710]

I guess the next update could give us an upgrade. If so, maybe that would be becausethey're a little uneasy & regretful after not going high for Easter, which in parts of the SE should've been placed. Of course, even the moderate wasn't expanded enough to include, some parts of TN, GA, NC & SC that should've been included. I won't hold my breath, as others have said, until we see how far northward the warm front moves. Should the warm sector grow larger than forecast, the need to go High could arise.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Get the feeling the warm front and any comma head or bowing structures just below it could be the big story for tomorrow, probably significant swaths of wind damage with isolated possibly strong tornadoes. Any supercell in the warm sector is going to be trouble especially where we get isolated backing and closest to the better dynamics but I have storm mode questions and certainly wonder if the warm sector doesn't get junked up by showers and merging multicell clusters.

Someone's going to get a significant tornado but whether it comes from a comma head (or, heaven forbid a supercell or a Palm Sunday 94 supercell cluster) on the warm front or a supercell that avoids messy clusters, hard to say just yet. The 45% wind swath was a good call though; I think that is applicable in more Dixie events than it's issued for.

I’m just not seeing a lot of discrete stuff with this setup ...

 

[The Colonel]

Elevated storms are so loud

 

[brianc33710]

Well BMX has now shifted the boundaries further south and the 5 bands are packed even tighter than they were before. From Hamilton to Cullman & Gadsden north is no severe risk. Jasper, Birmingham proper & Anniston are now in the marginal risk zone, although Tuscaloosa, the south tip of Jefferson Co, and most of Shelby Co & Sylacauga are in slight. Just south of Shelby Co & Tuscaloosa. Eutaw, Clanton & Alexander City are in the enhanced zone. From Demopolis, Selma, Montgomery & Auburn south you have the moderate risk. Given this trend, I guess we will have just everyday storms with a boatload of rain. Although that in and of itself will cause plenty of problems.

 

[Richardjacks]

Well BMX has now shifted the boundaries further south and the 5 bands are packed even tighter than they were before. From Hamilton to Gadsden north is no severe risk. Jasper, Birmingham proper & Anniston are now in the marginal risk zone, although Tuscaloosa, the south tip of Jefferson Co, and most of Shelby Co is in slight. Just south of Shelby Co & Tuscaloosa, Clanton to Alexander City is in the enhanced zone. From Demopolis, Selma, Montgomery & Auburn south you have the moderate risk. Given this trend, I guess we will have just everyday storms with a boatload of rain. Although that in and of itself will cause plenty of problems.

Yes, which I think is a good move. Also for the MDT risk- I think there is too much veering in the low levels, south of the warm front which is where discrete supercells are possible. Only right on (or north) of the warm are seeing backing--this should limit the significant tornado threat to a fairly small area.

 

[Evan]

This Chilton County storm has got to have some pretty impressive hail. Really surprised there's no SVR. Has to be well over severe criteria.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

This Chilton County storm has got to have some pretty impressive hail. Really surprised there's no SVR. Has to be well over severe criteria.

More impressive than that is the 106mph velocity signature.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

More impressive than that is the 106mph velocity signature.

111mph actually.

 

[Jason Ledbetter]

Looks like my dad has a narrow miss headed his way in Wedowee.

 

[Kory]

1000-1500 J/KG MUCAPE will continue to feed these storms despite surface temps being in the 50s.

 

[Jacob]

Elevated storms are so loud

That storm at 5ish as it came through Trussville was absurdly loud. Probably the most frequent amount of close lightning strikes that I can remember occuring here in years.