Severe WX April 19-20, 2020 Severe Weather Threat (1 Viewer)


andyhb

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Messages
168
Location
Norman, OK
JAN has gone liberal again. We're back to pre-2014 ratings it seems. This is good news. Though to be fair, nothing really liberal about that rating. An anchor-bolted home was leveled and partially swept away. Any time that happens, an EF4 rating should always be applied, given contextual support of course.
They're using the EF-scale in the way it was intended to be used, not inventing stupid reasons for tornadoes to not be rated the way they should be.
 

andyhb

Member
Messages
168
Location
Norman, OK
What is the deal with these ridiculously wide tornadoes?
Lots of moisture -> low LCL heights. Also several of these supercells (and some of the QLCS circulations on 4/12) have had very large mesocyclones. Adding those two together = large tornadoes.

MS is often a hot spot for these, especially central and southern parts of the state. Yazoo City in 2010 being another good example.
 

Equus

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1,825
Location
Saragossa, AL
Most offices are overly conservative and seem to try to hold to lower bound, so I'd say sadly enough that proper use IS a pretty liberal use these days. It's pretty amazing still how that tornado produced that one tiny area of high end damage (and EF4 does seem the right call despite the tiny area, scary getting used to bent anchor bolts this month) and then barely above EF2 the rest of its extensive path... which extended FAR longer than the radar made it seem. Southern Mississippi is absolutely KING of long track tornadoes in the US, no contest.
 

Equus

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1,825
Location
Saragossa, AL
Using the EF scale as it was originally intended, it is about right; I can think of some offices where this would've wound up mid to high EF3 though, which is definitely lower than such damage should wind up given contextual factors.
 
Messages
304
Location
Lenexa, KS
Using the EF scale as it was originally intended, it is about right; I can think of some offices where this would've wound up mid to high EF3 though, which is definitely lower than such damage should wind up given contextual factors.
Anchorage bolts ripped off the foundation of a decently built home I would think indicate violent damage.
 

KoD

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1,063
Location
Huntsville, AL
Would you guys consider this event a "bust' even though we did have one strong, long track tornado?
I don't think it was a bust if you're judging the general prognosis made by many contributing members here. Seems like the expectation that there was a credible threat but not as substantial as Easter was pretty spot on.
I don't know if the stats line up with moderate risk SPC category but I do think moderate issuance was acceptable. It would be even more appropriate had Easter been a high risk.
 

Brice

Member
Messages
182
Location
Virginia
I don't think it was a bust if you're judging the general prognosis made by many contributing members here. Seems like the expectation that there was a credible threat but not as substantial as Easter was pretty spot on.
I don't know if the stats line up with moderate risk SPC category but I do think moderate issuance was acceptable. It would be even more appropriate had Easter been a high risk.

IF we expected what happened on Easter, High Risk would be near certain. If there wasn't any messy convection in the morning I think they would've went High Risk and the outbreak could've been worse. I think it was more under-performed than anything else now that I'm really thinking about it.(mini outbreak with the EF4.
 

ARCC

Member
Messages
413
Location
Coosa county
Just to show how small the world is and how quickly life can change, this is my parents Camper at Wind Creek. The second picture is their bed where my mom was sleeping a few minutes before the storm. The area is smashed and Kellyton has the worst non tornadic wind damage I’ve ever seen in person. Another example to take even STW seriously.
 

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