Bama Ravens
Member
The weird thing about this, though, is that it doesn't really coincide with the surface based cape coming from the 3k NAM.Check out the helicity streaks on the NAM as well
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Severe WX April 19-20, 2020 Severe Weather Threat
- Thread starter Justin Hindman
- Start date
Kory
Member
There’s going to be a lot of elevated instability.
Kory
Member
Not really much to keep the warm front south of 20/59 on the latest HRRR models.
If this is correct, I think the warm front will be "locked in" and not be able to move much further north, in fact, simulated reflectivity suggests the storms will be backbuilding over the same area...but of course, this is the hr.
Kory
Member
The LLJ isn’t kicking in at that point. That will lift E to ENE.
true, but the LLJ will just keep pushing warm moist air over the cooler more stable air, causing more rain to lock in the warm front position...at least that is what happens many times.
brianc33710
Member
OK. Right now in AL marginal & moderate are < 100 mi apart. No risk at all is much further. These bands are super tight.
brianc33710
Member
Interestingly, BMX has a rainfall bullseye in Chilton Co, which is in the Mod risk zone. So they could have the worst of both.
Kory
Member
Looks like the HRRR shoots a complex out of Texas/Louisiana before the LLJ can become established and allow for more recovery. Lets see what the other CAMs too, because there isn't nearly as good of consensus as last Sunday.
The fact that the sfc low gets "pulled" a little more south on that run is strong evidence that the warm front will make little progress to the north, if any....especially after 4 or 5 pm.
andyhb
Member
Yeah that HRRR run is a mess, becoming less confident in a tornado threat here should anything like that verify. It is also really veered with the surface winds.
in fact that really questions if there should be anything above slight risk for severe weather...the surface low is actually filling as it moves into Alabama, so little/no pressure falls. Still good shear with cape pushed south
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GTWXAlum
Member
Yeah, the 0z HRRR taken verbatim would keep any appreciable tornado threat from about Jackson, Miss to Montgomery to Macon, GA and south
RollTide18
Member
The HRRR streaks down this way in south central AL is freaking me out
TornadoFan
Member
High risk incoming. Though I can't really see what would warrent it.
Equus
Member
If that's true, uncertainty is higher than last weekend AND dynamics seem weaker with veering and potentially messy storm mode. I don't understand it.
MattPetrulli
Member
You see I was also confused but then realized it's Broyles at the desk since he did the last day 1.
warneagle
Member
I don't see how this is a high risk if last Sunday wasn't.
ARCC
Member
Must be heavily weighting the ARW which blasts South AL/MS with strong long track UH streaks. That said, besides the HRRR, it is really by itself. Earlier yesterday I could have seen a high risk being issued in the day Sunday if it all was lining up right. However my confidence has trended lower through out the day.
Equus
Member
Yep, I thought we were trending a little lower; obviously still a dangerous setup but really nothing has stood out to me as being nearly as nasty as the Easter outbreak. With model uncertainty still a little on the high side (not to mention that area's usual massive trouble with warm sector convection and iffy storm mode) it would be surprising for them to pull that trigger so soon, but that ain't my call