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Severe WX April 19-20, 2020 Severe Weather Threat

Richardjacks said:
Does tomorrow remind anyone of the Palm Sunday event...just positioned further south. I still think the warm front will not make much progress between Montgomery and B'ham, but will have to be watched for any surprises.
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As the saying goes, speak of the devil and he'll show up in the SARS analogs.

nam4km_2020041812_036_32.69--89.62.png
 
The bullseye of the moderate is literally right over the violent tornado tracks in S MS. Concerned about the nocturnal component to this as well, LLJ really cranks post 00z across AL/GA and eventually into the Carolinas.
 
andyhb said:
The bullseye of the moderate is literally right over the violent tornado tracks in S MS. Concerned about the nocturnal component to this as well, LLJ really cranks post 00z across AL/GA and eventually into the Carolinas.
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Yeah 50-60kts across southern 2/3 of AL/GA per the Euro. That MDT likely expands East.
 
If you go by the nws graphic and you live in tuscaloosa co you can go from slight to enhanced to moderate all in 1 co! I think thats a great graphic to show how dramatic the cutoff is going to be from the haves and the have nots. This morning i noticed several models are dead set on montgomery area if you go by the uh streaks. Not sure if thats changed but you get the idea as of now the tornado threat remains s of 20/59 and id say from demopolis s. With the sharp cutoff there is going to be a surprise i feel. Further s or further n.
 
darkskys25 said:
If you go by the nws graphic and you live in tuscaloosa co you can go from slight to enhanced to moderate all in 1 co! I think thats a great graphic to show how dramatic the cutoff is going to be from the haves and the have nots. This morning i noticed several models are dead set on montgomery area if you go by the uh streaks. Not sure if thats changed but you get the idea as of now the tornado threat remains s of 20/59 and id say from demopolis s. With the sharp cutoff there is going to be a surprise i feel. Further s or further n.
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looks like we are thinking the same thing...just a few miles could make a huge difference, I am still thinking south toward Montgomery/Demopolis, but there ain't no guarantee.
 
Richardjacks said:
looks like we are thinking the same thing...just a few miles could make a huge difference, I am still thinking south toward Montgomery/Demopolis, but there ain't no guarantee.
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Haha we were definitely thinking the same thing at the same time. Yep demopolis to montgomery is my spot where i think the greatest tornado threat will be. Every mile will make a difference.
 
I don't know about the rest of you, but the risk for flooding has me VERY concerned. I have a feeling this is going to be one of those days where we're going to see a large area of green-outlined polygons.
 
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