Severe WX April 12-15th, 2018 Severe Potential

[Mike S]

can we get live mode enabled on this thread? I have a feeling we're gonna need it in a few hours.

The technical administrative team has prepared for the possibility to go into live mode and as traffic picks up we can "flip the switch". The thing about live mode is it turns itself off after a period of inactivity (30 minutes I believe). We're busier than normal but not quite there yet, at least consistently. In most cases, we go to live mode as an event begins to unfold and more posts begin coming in.

I hope that helps in understanding when we activate live mode but if anyone has any questions feel free to shoot any staff member a question. Thanks.

 

[Richardjacks]

I'm not so sure anymore. CAMs are trending slower, even the GFS-based ones. Even the Baron BAMS that had been the fastest all along has 1000+ CAPE and discrete cellular storms as far north/west as Florence AL, Iuka MS, Booneville MS, late tomorrow morning and beyond. I do think the hatched area would need to extend eastward, though. I probably would've just hatched the entire 30% area if I was doing the outlook.

I see what you mean...spc appears to be on top of this and bmx is prob going have to extend their enhanced northward because that was based on outflow progression.
Also, when you have an upper flow parallel to the front and aniticyclonic curvature barely bending, that is the first clue the models are overdoing movement.

 

[akt1985]

Another tornado watch issued near the triple point north of Kansas City.

 

[JayF]

First Tornado Warning is out for Seminole County, OK.

 

[warneagle]

The technical administrative team has prepared for the possibility to go into live mode and as traffic picks up we can "flip the switch". The thing about live mode is it turns itself off after a period of inactivity (30 minutes I believe). We're busier than normal but not quite there yet, at least consistently. In most cases, we go to live mode as an event begins to unfold and more posts begin coming in.

I hope that helps in understanding when we activate live mode but if anyone has any questions feel free to shoot any staff member a question. Thanks.

Okay, good deal, thanks.

 

[Richardjacks]

Well that is a change...

 

[HazardousWx]

Well that is a change...

Another forecaster came on duty at BMX maybe?

 

[Richardjacks]

Another forecaster came on duty at BMX maybe?

it doesn't matter, the previous one was based on the outflow boundary moving in during the morning, that is looking less likey.

 

[Tennie]

Does anyone else feel like today's outlook is flipping them off or is it just me? LOL

It looks like a "thumb-up" to me. *Shrug*

 

[Richardjacks]

HRRR is coming in with higher sbcape further north and east than NAM. 1000 j/k west Tuscaloosa county by 7am.

 

[Tennie]

Tornado warning at Fort Smith, AR.

KFSM has a wall cloud on their live stream:

http://5newsonline.com/on-air/live-streaming/

 

[WesL]

Due to the tornado warning in Arkansas we are going to go ahead and turn on live mode. If you are a member and are logged in you can leave the last page open and new posts will automatically load. Once 45 minutes go by with no new posts it will automagically turn off.

 

[KoD]

Velocities returning 120mph NE of Fort Smith

 

[seasonsofweather]

Fort Smith cell really wrapping up now

 

[WesL]

NWS Little Rock reporting debris signature near Mountainburg, AR. via KFSM (Ft. Smith, AR)

 

[warneagle]

Nasty looking storm. And not even into the moderate area yet. Hope that's not a sign of things to come. Did LZK send up an 18z balloon? Or did SHV for that matter?

 

[WesL]

LZK relaying Arkansas State Troopers confirming debris near Mountainburg, AR. KFSM (Ft. Smith, AR)

 

[WesL]

Relayed report from KFSM (Ft. Smith, AR) that at least one home has damage in Mountainburg

 

[Tennie]

ABC 40/29 in Fort Smith/Fayetteville has a crew heading up toward the Mountainburg area, per their live stream:

http://www.4029tv.com/nowcast

 

[seasonsofweather]

I may be completely out of line when saying this due to my limited meteorological knowledge but could a cell merger be happening with the mountainburg cell?