Severe WX Severe Wx Outbreak March 1st- 3rd, 2023 - Southern States, MS/OH/TN Valley

[tennessee storm chaser]

What makes you say that?

Slp seems to be getting squashed deep further south on these runs , going hinder the warm sector , not going be as large open … like see better instability … going say areas down toward gulf still have shot at a respectable eevebt suppose … let’s see how the 12z suits are today .

 

[Clancy]

CIPS analog maps for D7 and D8, respectively.

Edit: Also, probability map of 1+ and 5+ SVR reports from 3/1 to 3/4, respectively.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

What the heck is driving these analogs a more robust instability pool ahead of the high shear for Monday?

Wrong thread. This comment was intended for Monday lol

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Gfs just pushed slp even little further south lol maybe getting closer to snow than we think in some places

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Gfs just pushed slp even little further south lol maybe getting closer to snow than we think in some places

What're you talking about? For the Tennessee area ? It actually set it up for a very volatile day for atleast Alabama in the 12z may miss out on the Tennessee area some

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Honestly it's been quite a while 12 years since such a deep low traveled a identical path? Correct me if I'm wrong the last time a deep low traveled near that path and brought severe weather for Alabama was April 27th 2011 I think. And again I will say this every time lol, this will not be as bad as that day. But it's a very rare occurrence to have a 980s mb low traverse the favorable place for tornado events in Alabama.

 

[keithGA]

Backside snow.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Backside snow.

Oh okay! Hey I'd take that any day. Rather than tornadoes you wanna switch places @tennessee storm chaser

 

[Taylor Campbell]

What're you talking about? For the Tennessee area ? It actually set it up for a very volatile day for atleast Alabama in the 12z may miss out on the Tennessee area some View attachment 18131

Yeah, that’s a nasty look and continues to uptick the severe potential for Thursday.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Yeah, that’s a nasty look and continues to uptick the severe potential for Thursday.

Ludicrous height falls with a favorable broad trough.
Although not as broad as it was a day ago I don't think , and it's semi neutral semi negative tilt trough; not sure that it'll be a major hindrance though

 

[CheeselandSkies]

GFS also seems to be getting more progressive with the system. Front now races through most of AL before peak heating 3/3. However in the past it's been known to do this and then slow the system down again inside of 72 hours or so.

 

[Clancy]

12Z GFS with robust SCP values over E AL/W GA. Has been keeping higher values in the NE 1/3rd of AL and parts of W GA for a while now.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

What're you talking about? For the Tennessee area ? It actually set it up for a very volatile day for atleast Alabama in the 12z may miss out on the Tennessee area some View attachment 18131

Trends keep going south

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

GFS also seems to be getting more progressive with the system. Front now races through most of AL before peak heating 3/3. However in the past it's been known to do this and then slow the system down again inside of 72 hours or so.

Exactly , think this a trend that needs be watched . Going be soon the Florida panhandle se. Georgia and south Alabama towards gulf going be the trouble spot

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Prefrontal trough showed on the 12z GFS ahead of the main cold front. Oof especially if there is a unstable warm sector ahead of it.

 

[JPWX]

No, that is the 850mb level winds. The surface low deepens to 985mb by central MS.

Ah gotcha

 

[NorthGaWeather]

Trends keep going south

To be fair, the 12z GFS moved north compared to the 00z. The 12z GEFS is also north with most members in the Missouri Bootheel, but there is a lot of spread. The fun of D7/8 trends.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

To be fair, the 12z GFS moved north compared to the 00z. The 12z GEFS is also north with most members in the Missouri Bootheel, but there is a lot of spread. The fun of D7/8 trends.

The GEFS is on board with that path? Oof haven't checked the ensembles recently. How much you wanna bet a SPC outline comes out by tommorow morning if the rest of the runs are very similar to the Memphis /bootheel area?

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

The GEFS is on board with that path? Oof haven't checked the ensembles recently. How much you wanna bet a SPC outline comes out by tommorow morning if the rest of the runs are very similar to the Memphis /bootheel area?

A lot depends for sure tonight’s 0z runs … imo.

 

[UK_EF4]

Still think SPC will most likely hold off till day 5-6 to be honest, at the earliest. Could be wrong but models still seem all over the shop, exact trough shape, ejection, track, timing all seem to be varying between globals and ensembles at the minute.