Hurricane Hurricane Barry (Gulf of Mexico)

[Bama Ravens]

 

[Bama Ravens]

From the NHC Discussion:

Barry is being affected by northerly shear, and water vapor imagery
indicates mid- to upper-level dry air moving into the cyclone from
the northeast. Some moderate shear is now expected to persist until
the cyclone makes landfall. Despite this less than ideal
environment, the guidance forecasts slow but steady intensification,
so the NHC forecast follows this trend. The new intensity forecast
is similar to the previous one in calling for Barry to become a
hurricane just before landfall in Louisiana, and it lies between the
HCCA and ICON consensus models.

 

[Equus]

Being pulled further and further east, its becoming a bit of a question whether there is even enough time and space before landfall for anything more than a very brief hurricane

 

[Taylor Campbell]

It’s struggling. There’s a lot of dry air in the upper atmosphere.

 

[Kory]

This was always going to be a massive rain maker. Nothing has changed in that regard.

 

[Blountwolf]

The story with this one will be the amount of moisture it drags in. With the northerly shear, much of that will come after landfall, so I am somewhat concerned that there will be a tendency to look at the strength of the cyclone in terms of wind speed and assume lesser impacts. There is a LOT of moisture being put in motion.

 

[Equus]

I do think that a not insignificant number of people will take the flooding threat a lot less seriously if a system is 'only' a tropical storm, Allison notwithstanding; that little bump from 70 to 75 would make a lot of difference for some despite being barely more than semantics

 

[TornadoFan]

The dry air is really killing it. I'd be surprised if it did reach hurricane status.

 

[Kory]

The story with this one will be the amount of moisture it drags in. With the northerly shear, much of that will come after landfall, so I am somewhat concerned that there will be a tendency to look at the strength of the cyclone in terms of wind speed and assume lesser impacts. There is a LOT of moisture being put in motion.View attachment 1891

Exactly. The convergence is on the south side of the system. That will swing inland as it approaches the coast of Louisiana.

 

[Blountwolf]

Here's a great look at the dry air that's currently affecting the system - but also the strength of the moisture being put in motion to the south of the storm.

 

[Kory]

GFS is still showing FEET of rain for Southeast LA into MS. Not sure how many people are gonna have to die and how many homes and cars will have to flood before people stop brushing off these storms.

 

[bjdeming]

It's only a foot, but maybe it will make a big difference in the long run:

 

[Blountwolf]

Stayin' Alive... lol.

 

[WesL]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barry Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
100 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019

...BARRY MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 89.0W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

None.

 

[TornadoFan]

Hurricane warning up for Louisiana.

 

[Bama Ravens]

NHC no longer has Barry reaching hurricane strength prior to landfall.

 

[Lori]

He’s slow moving though....”there’s a chance” (cue Dumb and Dumber gif)...

Yesterday my husband drove through NO around I-10 and 610 near the Superdome.... he saw houses and businesses flooded and cars stranded and partially submerged.

 

[Kory]

NHC no longer has Barry reaching hurricane strength prior to landfall.

From the discussion:

While not explicitly shown in the forecast, there is a significant chance that Barry will be a
hurricane when it makes landfall between 36-48 h in agreement with the HWRF and GFS models.

 

[Bama Ravens]

From the discussion:

While not explicitly shown in the forecast, there is a significant chance that Barry will be a
hurricane when it makes landfall between 36-48 h in agreement with the HWRF and GFS models.

My bad. When I posted the discussion was not pulling up yet, just the map.

 

[WBB]

GFS is still showing FEET of rain for Southeast LA into MS. Not sure how many people are gonna have to die and how many homes and cars will have to flood before people stop brushing off these storms.

Who exactly is brushing off these storms?