Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 11/5-11/7

[Xenesthis]

Well I can’t imagine much will be said here. If there is no storms that form in advance of the line then just QLCS tornadoes/wind would be the main threat... so basically maybe some spin ups

 

[Xenesthis]

Meso... statements bout possible watches going be needed or not ....

I am sure a tornado watch will be posted but nothing of special note

 

[MichelleH]

I am sure a tornado watch will be posted but nothing of special note

The SPC usually does a mesoscale discussion (MD) when they are considering or about to issue a severe thunderstorm or tornado watch. It's standard procedure.

 

[warneagle]

Yeah I'd be surprised to see them go PDS with 10% sigtor (I can't remember if there's a specific relationship between outlook probs and PDS issuance or not).

 

[Richardjacks]

Last few runs the HRR has been upping the 0-3 km hel values for areas north and along of I59...got to watch for clearing/cloud lines as that could act as a trigger for cells advance of the front.
A clearing line is advancing northward.

 

[Xenesthis]

Does anyone have any maps of current few points? I just want to see where things stand right now

 

[Xenesthis]

Last few runs the HRR has been upping the 0-3 km hel values for areas north and along of I59...got to watch for clearing/cloud lines as that could act as a trigger for cells advance of the front.
A clearing line is advancing northward.

Also the fact that TN has been cloud free for the most part doesn’t mean much

 

[Richardjacks]

Also the fact that TN has been cloud free for the most part doesn’t mean much

I have to keep reminding myself dst has ended so daylight is now very limited in the afternoon, the clearing line prob won't matter much

 

[warneagle]

You can see where the warm juicy air is on the surface obs: right now it's along the line from Vicksburg to Jackson to Meridian, which is about where mesoanalysis shows the 500 j/kg CAPE threshold. Slightly warmer in NW Mississippi where the sun has been out for a fair amount of the day (71 at Greenville vs. 68 at Greenwood). I guess we'll see how far north it gets in the next 3-6 hours.

 

[Xenesthis]

You can see where the warm juicy air is on the surface obs: right now it's along the line from Vicksburg to Jackson to Meridian, which is about where mesoanalysis shows the 500 j/kg CAPE threshold. Slightly warmer in NW Mississippi where the sun has been out for a fair amount of the day (71 at Greenville vs. 68 at Greenwood). I guess we'll see how far north it gets in the next 3-6 hours.

It has a long way to go to get to TN

 

[NWMSGuy]

Looks like Reed Timmer is just south of Tunica, MS according to Twitter.

 

[Richardjacks]

showers are popping in the unstable air in south alabama

 

[Bama Ravens]

First tornado watch coming for parts of LA, AR, TN, and MS

 

[Xenesthis]

Now is this expected to propogate NE as the storm moves east? In other words should I expect the probability of a tornado watch shift NE into TN with the overnight hours

 

[warneagle]

Surprised by only 80% watch issuance probability.

 

[Cyrgeetar]

Storms beginning to rotate in eastern TX and LA. Here we go...

 

[NWMSGuy]

Interesting comment from recent MD:

Currently, scattered convective showers exist near the instability
axis over east TX and northwest LA, but they are shallow with no
lightning due to the warm midlevel temperatures. However, they are
already rotating. Farther north, a band of ascent was evident on
radar from the ArkLaTex into central AR, with gradually warming
temperatures south of that area.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Yeah wow, these little guys already want to be supercells. Now the question is are the dynamics already in place to sustain them or will the warmer midlevel air kill them off?

 

[Jimruns]

Yeah wow, these little guys already want to be supercells. Now the question is are the dynamics already in place to sustain them or will the warmer midlevel air kill them off?

Yeah wow, these little guys already want to be supercells. Now the question is are the dynamics already in place to sustain them or will the warmer midlevel air kill them off?

 

[WesL]

And we are off to the races...

National Weather Service Shreveport LA
351 PM CST MON NOV 5 2018

The National Weather Service in Shreveport has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Northwestern Sabine Parish in northwestern Louisiana...
Southeastern Shelby County in eastern Texas...
North central Sabine County in eastern Texas...