Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 11/5-11/7

[Xenesthis]

16z HRRR continues to pop a few small cells out front of the line as it reached Bham Metro but they don't seem to get going.

Helicity tracks stay from roughly north of 278 into N AL and Central Tennessee.

Not a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency by any means, but it appears to stay linear, which means I may sleep a tiny bit better tonight. The dog, however, won't.

Can you post a pic of those helicity tracks?

 

[South AL Wx]

Can you post a pic of those helicity tracks?

Here is it from the 16z HRRR:

 

[Xenesthis]

Here is it from the 16z HRRR:

Ummmm... that looks like a middle TN event

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

The rich unstable air mass is just south of Memphis. Surging north ... see how far into sw Tennessee it can get

 

[Xenesthis]

The rich unstable air mass is just south of Memphis. Surging north ... see how far into sw Tennessee it can get

Well TN in general really... looks like the best dynamics are over TN. If we get the instability here then game on I think

 

[CAL]

The height field certainly suggests this will be a northern MS and southwest/middle TN event. Moreover, it could also be argued that storms may track further northeast than expected due to the cool season pressure perturbations that we see so often in this neck of the woods (southeast KY perhaps?).

 

[The Nino]

the clouds sure are socked in here in the hunstville area

 

[Jimruns]

Are these gravity waves and are they indicative of greater instability?

 

[Xenesthis]

Are these gravity waves and are they indicative of greater instability?View attachment 940View attachment 940

I saw these driving into work this morning and took video and photos

 

[Xenesthis]

Almost 70 here now

 

[Gail]

It's still cloudy and cool here at Columbus AFB. Temp is 64.

 

[Parysa]

Huntsville mets seem to think that this is going to be a linear event with no discrete supercells for north AL. Thoughts?

 

[CAL]

Huntsville mets seem to think that this is going to be a linear event with no discrete supercells for north AL. Thoughts?

I agree with this. I feel there is still a chance of supercells in the extreme northwest corner of Alabama, however the height field pattern tells me this is going west and north of Alabama for the most part.

 

[Parysa]

I agree with this. I feel there is still a chance of supercells in the extreme northwest corner of Alabama, however the height field pattern tells me this is going west and north of Alabama for the most part.

Thanks. I've been watching it, but I'm no met and I haven't actively studied it in five years or more, so I'm rusty.

 

[warneagle]

Basically no changes in the 20z Day 1.

 

[NWMSGuy]

I would think within the next hour or so we should start to see some MD's from SPC.

 

[Bama Ravens]

New Day 1, basically no change.

 

[Xenesthis]

I would think within the next hour or so we should start to see some MD's from SPC.

MD’s???

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

MD’s???

Meso... statements bout possible watches going be needed or not ....

 

[NWMSGuy]

MD’s???

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