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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 11/5-11/7

A question for you met's I've been meaning to ask for some time now....

I see mentioned in many convective outlooks and on forums is "Forcing for Ascent"

With this particular system, is the primary forcing the jet streak, the actual cold front or both?
 
NAM sounding is popping a matcfh of 11/24/2001
Jimruns said:
A question for you met's I've been meaning to ask for some time now....

I see mentioned in many convective outlooks and on forums is "Forcing for Ascent"

With this particular system, is the primary forcing the jet streak, the actual cold front or both?
Click to expand...
Both, but you need some kind of ascent ahead of the front for super cells to pop ahead of the front..those would have highest tornado threat...that would come from upper forcing...until front arrives which provides surface forcing.
 
Richardjacks said:
NAM sounding is popping a matcfh of 11/24/2001
Both, but you need some kind of ascent ahead of the front for super cells to pop ahead of the front..those would have highest tornado threat...that would come from upper forcing...until front arrives which provides surface forcing.
Click to expand...

Just a quick word of thanks to you and the others in the know for their well informed information you all are posting! It is much appreciated for those of us trying to spread the word for this event in our own personal sphere.
 
I've seen a lot of 11/24/01 analogs from various models (not just the NAM) over the last few days. That one kind of gets forgotten because of Veterans Day the next year, but it was a pretty significant cool season event (69 tornadoes, 25 significant). That's probably a worst-case scenario for today but it has been something that's come up frequently in the forecast soundings I've been looking at.
 
Richardjacks said:
NAM sounding is popping a matcfh of 11/24/2001
Both, but you need some kind of ascent ahead of the front for super cells to pop ahead of the front..those would have highest tornado threat...that would come from upper forcing...until front arrives which provides surface forcing.
Click to expand...
Thank so much....
 
Sunny here in Murfreesboro... Let’s see how unstable this gets by evening
 
I believe a few cells with pop near the Mississippi River, those will be the ones to watch, I think it will be a weakening line once it’s gets near i65. Night time events are always tough.
 
Still mostly cloudy over the warm sector, but there are a few breaks in the clouds over NW Mississippi/SW Tennessee.
 
warneagle said:
Still mostly cloudy over the warm sector, but there are a few breaks in the clouds over NW Mississippi/SW Tennessee.
Click to expand...
Is it possible that the war sector shifts east a bit? Reason I ask is because it seems the sun is out in force further east
 
16z HRRR continues to pop a few small cells out front of the line as it reached Bham Metro but they don't seem to get going.

Helicity tracks stay from roughly north of 278 into N AL and Central Tennessee.

Not a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency by any means, but it appears to stay linear, which means I may sleep a tiny bit better tonight. The dog, however, won't.
 
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