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Hurricane Category 4 Hurricane Helene

And if you go back to the 1st NHC forecast when it was just a PTC, it was a pretty good track forecast:

I wonder if they just relied too much on the hurricane models once it got closer to shore. It looks like the globals definitely had a better handle on the track.
Yes, amazingly good long range hurricane forecast. I don't mean to take anything away from how good their initial calls on this before it even formed were - that was pretty incredible. But yes, it did seem like they went with the hurricane models too much for the track after landfall.
 
Swannanoa River at Biltmore Village is now above the record crest of 1916 event and still climbing rapidly. It's also 2 feet above 2004's crest from Hurricane Frances.
View attachment 30369

Still rising unfortunately. Looks like the current stage is 22.08 feet, and it is forecasted to crest at 27 feet.
 
Grim words from EMS in the Carolinas:

...
"It is no longer safe to leave your home, please do not attempt to travel the roadways if it is not an emergency. Multiple roads are blocked by trees and powerlines are down throughout the county. Too many to list. A large majority of the county is impassable. Trees and powerlines are falling faster than we can clear them. A day at work is not worth your life.Fire departments have had to suspend road clearing operations due to numerous trees falling around them while working. These operations will not resume until wind conditions improve and they can be conducted safely. Emergency services will only respond to immediate life threats until further notice and services may be severely delayed. Stay home!"

-- Source
 
Grim words from EMS in the Carolinas:
The Carolinas are a mess. About half the state of SC is without power. A lot of folks there got surprised with what North Georgia was expecting.
 
Found that while looking for landslide real-time information. Apparently this is something on everyone's wish list but still in the early stages of implementation.

Here is a 2012 page from the USGS -- there are stations in NC forest sites but the only one I could get through to had needed maintenance and a power-up for a while.

Of course, the storm system hasn't stalled yet. When it does, hopefully the consequences won't be as severe as they were in Myanmar this week.

There is good landslide warning-sign and preparedness info accessible from that link, though. Here it is again.
 
Western VA now losing power - 100k+ there now. Some outages starting to be reported in KY and even up into Ohio as well now. NC now up to 845k without, doubling since about 3 hours ago.
 
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still curious to see what kind of surge data we're gonna get from Florida; it sounded like those readings of 11-12 feet people were posting last night weren't from the immediate area around the coast, so I wouldn't be surprised if the surge really did get to 15-20 feet in those areas. unfortunately it also sounded like there may not have been many gauges in the most-affected areas since they're pretty sparsely populated.
 
still curious to see what kind of surge data we're gonna get from Florida; it sounded like those readings of 11-12 feet people were posting last night weren't from the immediate area around the coast, so I wouldn't be surprised if the surge really did get to 15-20 feet in those areas. unfortunately it also sounded like there may not have been many gauges in the most-affected areas since they're pretty sparsely populated.
Looks like the 15ft surge forecast verified. :(
 
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