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Hurricane Category 4 Hurricane Helene

It looks like she's over Athens, Ga., only 9 hours after landfall, STILL at Tropical Storm strength (according to the latest advisory 2 hours ago).
 
Anyone got any reports from the Tallahassee + Big Bend area? Curious what it looks like today.
 
Definitely took the eastern track favored by the GFS early on. Poor western NC - they didn't really need this. Very pleased it went where it did, but I expect after folks get power back and check in there's going to be a lot of damage found east of where it did go.
 
warneagle said:
Shoutout to Wheeler and Screven County for keeping most of the lights on.
Click to expand...
They're rather lucky considering how bad Eastern Georgia has ended up.
 
From what little I'm seeing, there's lots of trees down around the landfall area, so it will probably take a lot of time for news and photos to come out.

I'm really curious to see what the areas most impacted by the surge look like, but I'm also reminding myself to be patient. Just hearing about the surge just in the Tampa area has me really worried about the small towns along the shore in the Big Bend.
 
Just in the hour since I posted, the NC numbers have gone up another 1/4 million in folks without power. She's still making a mess.
 
Oh my gosh. That drone footage from Steinhatchee is just... wow. I don't even really comprehend what happened with the first bit and the building on an edge above other buildings.

Edit: Also, it looks like that first bit, where you can barely see the piers in the river, is right by the restaurant I was watching the webcam from last night. That already made me feel more of a connection to that spot, so seeing this... Wow.
 
Major tree damage from Augusta.


Flooding in NC continues.
 
Swannanoa River at Biltmore Village is now above the record crest of 1916 event and still climbing rapidly. It's also 2 feet above 2004's crest from Hurricane Frances.
1727447475514.png
 
Models nailed the Fujiwara, the whole process was just bigger scale than modeled. It's done basically everything predicted, just with bigger arcs further east.
1727447783672.png

Hat tip to Matt Grantham for sniffing out the more easterly track well ahead of time, when even the NHC didn't. I think the NHC will have some soul searching to do about which models to trust for large scale interactions after landfall - the daily use ones handled it a lot better than the hurricane models.
 
Blountwolf said:
Models nailed the Fujiwara, the whole process was just bigger scale than modeled. It's done basically everything predicted, just with bigger arcs further east.
View attachment 30370

Hat tip to Matt Grantham for sniffing out the more easterly track well ahead of time, when even the NHC didn't. I think the NHC will have some soul searching to do about which models to trust for large scale interactions after landfall - the daily use ones handled it a lot better than the hurricane models.
Click to expand...

And if you go back to the 1st NHC forecast when it was just a PTC, it was a pretty good track forecast:

1727448066366.png

I wonder if they just relied too much on the hurricane models once it got closer to shore. It looks like the globals definitely had a better handle on the track.
 
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