Casuarina Head
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“Up in the air”? I thought earlier development would significantly reduce the high-end “ceiling” over most of the warm sector in OK?
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Severe Weather Threat 5/25-5/26, 2024
- Thread starter MattPetrulli
- Start date
Stormchaser4life
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Not if it stays south where it is. Up closer to Red River early would be problematic.
Tempestas Tonitrua
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This is a single storm that is going up all the way down near San Angelo. This isn’t along the red river.
jiharris0220
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Not really liking how this guy is confusing people right now.
I think a detail to note about Bently's outlook is that Bunting appears to be lead forecaster today and he had high enough confidence in Bently's outlook that he let it be issued without addition.
Tempestas Tonitrua
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That guy is annoying as hell. He cherry picks models and soundings to paint every single event as this high end sequence. The worst of wx twitter and has no clue what he’s talking about.
Any time his stuff gets posted I just skip over it.
TornadoFan
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jiharris0220
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He also does the complete opposite and downplays threats, like he’s doing now, saying that this early convention will limit the threat in Oklahoma even though dews and cape are already sky high. SMH
Tempestas Tonitrua
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Yeah. He’s the guy that will post a sky high Nadocast from a single run for some one off slight risk in March to try and drum stuff up. He is the worst
"18 Year Old Weather Enthusiast" are the first words in his bio.
I doubt he knows much, which is okay. I don't know much either, but I'm going to school for meteorology.
His problem is (just a theory) that he is posting stuff without fully comprehending what exactly he is posting, which is why he can't give clarity.
When I don't know what is going on, I bow out of the conversations and let people who know more than me explain what's going on. I think this guy has a case of main character syndrome.
Tempestas Tonitrua
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Moral of the story is don’t take your weather advice from Saul Goodman
He certainly has some interesting posts, especially on his personal account.
Regardless, not sure what, if any, impact storms in TX will have on convection farther north. Kind of doubtful it has a nominal influence, but could maybe effect boundaries and the extent of initiation in NW OK. Still, too soon to make much of a verdict.
Evan
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Not necessarily. All depends on where that initiation occurs and what kind of coverage it brings.
The main issue, or at least one of the issues, that the SPC is unsure about is left movers/splits from north TX storms moving into OK and making the environment unfavorable there before cells can fire there. Some CAMs, such as the HRRR, have been showing this.
It's all good, every one of us occasionally crosses the line with a "post of passion". At least you admitted your mistake.
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I don't know who this is, or care to, but I have clothes older than him. I'll stick with trusted weather professionals.
jiharris0220
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I’m gonna be the one to say I don’t think these left splits will stabilize the atmosphere as much as some think.
When you have as much cape and low level moisture advection that we have now, you would need an entire storm complex to use up the energy to rob future storms of developing.
If storms end up initiating in the TX panhandle then it definitely wouldn’t matter what’s going on around the red river.
That cumulus field in the panhandle definitely wasn’t forecasted by models to be there, so again, really is wait and see.
When you have as much cape and low level moisture advection that we have now, you would need an entire storm complex to use up the energy to rob future storms of developing.
If storms end up initiating in the TX panhandle then it definitely wouldn’t matter what’s going on around the red river.
That cumulus field in the panhandle definitely wasn’t forecasted by models to be there, so again, really is wait and see.
NorthGaWeather
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I don’t know if it’s been posted but a snippet from the day 2.
“Some guidance indicates storm development ahead of the line across AL/TN/MS which would have a threat for all severe hazards given the steep mid-level lapse rates and strong low-level and deep-layer shear.”
I’m out of the loop today, so I don’t know what he’s referencing, but interesting nonetheless.
“Some guidance indicates storm development ahead of the line across AL/TN/MS which would have a threat for all severe hazards given the steep mid-level lapse rates and strong low-level and deep-layer shear.”
I’m out of the loop today, so I don’t know what he’s referencing, but interesting nonetheless.
I believe it's referencing the forecasted MCS late Sunday night into Monday morning. However, not all models are sold on the intensity of that portion of the event. If confidence were to increase, I wouldn't be surprised by a southward expansion of Slight Risk probs.