Hey man it’s better than Twitter.
He IS the tornado. Broyles Man Walking
Don't get me wrong, I'm just here to relax and enjoy it. If TW was turning into weather twitter, there'd be quite a few more colorful words being thrown around right now, and I don't think the mods will allow that to happen anytime soon...
Yeah I know lol, all of us are here to relax and enjoy it, the mods do a great job. Shoutout to them!
That's definitely something I noticed that could be an issue, but I've mostly been seeing mid-high 80 temps and mid-70 dews, which should be enough for storms imo. The dewpoints we've seen the past few days in the region were also in the mid-70s, so nothing really tells me that the same thing won't happen Saturday too.
Deeper in the warm sector, that's true, but several models are showing that's not necessarily the case at all back closer to the dryline where storms will initiate and spend their first hour or so.... and probably where it's most critical for them to not encounter high dewpoint depressions for too long.
The dewpoint depression/LCL-LFC concern is much more of an Oklahoma thing than in your area. Your dewpoints may not be as high as south central Oklahoma tomorrow, but your temperatures won't be as warm as Oklahoma either.
So could my area end up being under the gun tomorrow?
Your area is at threat already. That's why there's already a sigtor-driven Day 2 MDT Risk up into south central and east central Kansas that you are firmly included within, as of midday today. While the composite parameters might not be as apocalyptic looking there as they are in Oklahoma on the models, a somewhat cooler dewpoint and sfc temp combo (along with cooler 700mb temps to coincide with it) may allow for not only the cap to break up there, but for it to be easier to have lower LCL/cloud base heights and RFDs that don't cold-pool and undercut the inflow quickly.
My high temperature tomorrow is 86.0°F and OkC is 89.0°F. Could this potential outbreak be nocturnal as I see temps and dewpoints within a couple degrees of each other. i have looked into the Joplin 2011 tormado and the high temperature that day was 84.0°F and the highest dewpoint was 72.0°F. The temperatures dropped to like 68.0°F or 69.0°F with a dewpoint of 65.0°F or 66.0°F as the tornado was obliterating Joplin.
The "best" outcome for the supercells to be able to do their thing tomorrow afternoon is for us to have enough daytime heating to get temperatures up into the range to where we're not breaking the cap from reaching the convective temp, but along with subtle large scale ascent, we've gotten it weakened enough that focused low-level convergence ahead of the dryline can take over from there with specific updrafts. That would give us a cap breakage, but one that wouldn't promote quick upscale, and it would give us manageable dewpoint depressions and LCL/LFC heights, while also still having a bit of capping left to have space out storms.
Can it ever be too hot for a violent tornado to occur?
Whether the storms tomorrow are nocturnal or not will be determined by when the upper forcing arrives and at what point during the day does the cap (from a combination of both large scale ascent aloft and heating in the low-levels) become weak enough that low-level convergence can send updrafts successfully through it. It's not going to be determined by exact specific surface temperatures and dewpoints. There's way more to the atmosphere than what happens only at the surface, especially in storm initiation. The temp-dewpoint spread is going to help determine the characteristics and behavior of those storms, but it's not going to be the sole determining factor, and it's not going to be the specific factor that determines when the storms form.
Yes, easily, when the low-level temperatures are too warm compared to the low-level dewpoints so that the cloud bases end up too high.... for the reasoning that's already been discussed here over the past several minutes.
